BORÇ VADESİ VE FİNANSAL KRİZ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Bu çalışmada 2003-2017 yılları arasında Türkiye’deki firmalar için kısa vadeli borçların düzeltme hızındaki değişim dinamik bir model kullanarak incelenmiştir. Küresel Finansal Krizin firmaların borç vade yapısını nasıl etkilediğini anlamak için çalışmamızda analizimiz iki alt döneme ayrılarak bu dönemler arasındaki farka odaklanılmıştır. Küresel kriz, finansal istikrarsızlığın reel ekonomi üzerindeki etkisini, özellikle firmaların borç vade yapısı üzerindeki etkisini anlamak için önemli bir doğal deney imkânı sunmaktadır. En küçük kareler kukla değişken düzeltme (LSDVC) metodu kullanarak Türkiye firmaları için 2003-2017 döneminde optimal borç vadesinin kısaldığı gösterilmiştir. Şirketler Küresel Finansal Krizden sonra kısa vadeli borç ayarlama hızlarını azaltmaktadır. Bu sonuç, Küresel Finansal Kriz sırasında borç verme iştahının azalması neticesinde, kredi arzındaki azalmaya bağlı olabilmektedir. Arz etkisini destekleyen bir diğer sebep de uzun vadeli borçların finansal kriz sırasında ve sonrasında pahalı hale gelmesi nedeniyle, firmaların kısa vadeli borç taleplerini arttırmasıdır. Bu çalışma, Türk firmalarına, kredi arzının daralması ve uzun vadeli kredi talebinin azalması nedeniyle finansal krizlerin optimal borç vadesini kısalttığına dair kanıt sunan ilk çalışmadır. Sonuçlarımız krizin firmaların borçlanma davranışlarını nasıl etkilediğini göstermesi ve kredi kanallarının kullanımı açısından firmaların borç vadesi kararlarını verirken kriz ortamlarını dikkate almaları gerektiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Borç Vadesi, , Ayarlama Hızı, Küresel Finansal Kriz

DEBT MATURITY AND FINANCIAL CRISIS: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

In this study we examine changes in the adjustment speed of short-term debt for firms in Turkey between the years 2003-2017. In order to understand how the global financial crisis (GFC) affected the debt maturity structure of firms, we focus on the difference between two sub-periods; before and after the crisis. GFC provides an important natural experiment opportunity to understand the impact of financial instability on the real economy, especially on firms' debt maturity structure. Using Least squares dummy variable correction (LSDVC) method and a dynamic adjustment model, we show that the optimal debt maturity shortens over the period 2003-2017 for Turkish companies. Firms reduce their speed of adjustment after the global financial crisis. This result may be related to the decrease in credit supply as a result of the decrease in lending appetite during the global financial crisis. Another reason that supports the supply effect is that companies increase their short-term debt demand since long-term borrowing becomes expensive during and after the financial crisis. This is the first study to provide evidence on Turkish firms that financial crisis shortens the optimal debt maturity due to a shortage in loan supply and reduced long-term loan demand. Our results suggest that firms should consider the crisis conditions and availability of credit while making their debt maturity decisions.

Keywords:

Debt Maturity , Adjustment Speed, , Global Financial Crisis,

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