An Empırıcal Analysıs Of Turkısh Inflatıon (1988-2004): Some Non-Monetarıst Estımatıons

Anahtar Kelimeler:

-

___

  • AGENOR, Pierre Richard and Alexander W. HOFFMAİSTER (1997), “Money, Wages and Inflation in Middle Income Developing Countries”, IMF Working Paper, 97/174, December.
  • AKAT, A. Savaş (2000), “The Political Economy of Turkish Inflation”, Journal of International Affairs, 54/1.
  • AKÇAY, Belgin (1997), “Rational Expectations Model of Inflation for Turkey”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 12/2, 49-64.
  • AKÇAY, O. Cevdet, ALPER C. Emre and Süleyman ÖZMUCUR (1997), “Budget Deficit, Money Supply and Inflation: Evidence from Low and High Frequency Data for Turkey”, Boğaziçi University SBE Discussion Paper, 97/10.
  • AKÇAY, O.Cevdet, ALPER, C. Emre and Süleyman ÖZMUCUR (2001), “Budget Deficit, Inflation and Debt Sustainability: Evidence from Turkey (1970-2000)”, in KİBRİTÇİOĞLU, Aykut,RİTTENBERG, Libby and Faruk Selçuk (eds.), Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey, Ashgate Publishing Limited, 77-96.
  • AKYÜREK, Cem (1999), “An Empirical Analysis of Post-Liberalization Inflation in Turkey”, Yapı Kredi Economic Review, 10/2, December, 31-53.
  • ALPER, C. Emre and Murat ÜÇER (1998), “Some Observations on Turkish Inflation: A “Random Walk” Down the Past Decade”, Boğaziçi Journal, 12/1, 7-38.
  • ANAND, Ritu and Sweder van WİJNBERGEN (1989), “Inflation and the Financing of Government Expenditure: An Introductory Analysis with an Application to Turkey”, The World Bank Economic Review, 3/1, 17- 38.
  • ARESTIS, Philip (1992), The Post-Keynesian Approach to Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing
  • BEGG, David, FİSCHER, Stanley and Rudiger DORNBUSCH (1994), Economics, Fourth Ed., 1994.
  • BRUNO, Michael and Stanley FİSCHER (1986), “The Inflationary Process in Israel: Shocks and Accommodation”, NBER Working Paper, No. 1483.
  • CALVO, Guillermo A. and Carlos A VEGH (1999), “Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crisis in Developing Countries”, NBER Working Paper, 6925.
  • CBRT (2002), Para Politikası Raporu, April.
  • CELASUN, Oya, GELOS R. Gaston and Alessandro PRATTİ (2003), “Would Cold Turkey Work in Turkey?”, IMF Working Paper, 03/49.
  • CİZRE SAKALLIOĞLU, Ümit and Erinç YELDAN (1999), “Dynamics of Macroeconomic Disequilibrium and Inflation in Turkey: The State, Politics, and The Markets under a Globalized Developing Economy”, Bilkent University Department of Economics Working Paper, 99/10.
  • DAVIDSON, Paul (1994), Post Keynesian Macroeconomic Theory, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • DİBOOĞLU, Selahattin and Aykut KİBRİTÇİOĞLU (2001), “Inflation, Output and Stabilization in a High Inflation Economy: Turkey, 1980-2000”, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of Commerce and Business Administration, Office of Research Working Paper, 01/0112.
  • DICKEY, David A. and A.Wayne FULLER (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root”, Journal of American Statistical Association, Volume 74, Number 366, June, 427- 431.
  • DICKEY, David A., JANSEN, Dennis W. and L. Daniel THORNTON (1991), “A Primer on Cointegration with an Application to Money and Income”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April, 58-78.
  • DOMAÇ, İlker (2004), “Explaining and Forcasting Inflation in Turkey”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 3287, April.
  • DORNBUSCH, Rudiger and Stanley FİSCHER (1993), “Moderate Inflation”, The World Bank Economic Review, 7/1, 1-44.
  • ENGLE, Robert F. and C.W.J GRANGER (1987), “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55/2, March, 251-276.
  • ERLAT, Haluk (2001), “Long Memory in Turkish Inflation Rates”, Paper Presented at the 21st Annual Conference of the Middle East Economics Association, New Orleans, January, 5-7.
  • EROL, Turan and Sweder van WİJNBERGEN (1997), “Real Exchange Rate Targeting and Inflation in Turkey: An Empirical Analysis with Policy Credibility”, World Development, 25/10, 1717-1730.
  • EROL, Turan (1997), “Nominal Anchors of the Turkish Economy: Evidence from a VAR Model”, METU Studies in Development, 24/3, 363-382.
  • ERSEL, Nesrin and Aysu İNSEL (1993), “Türkiye’de Kronik Enflasyon Süreci ve Antienflasyonist Politikaların Etkinliği 1981-1991”, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 20/3, 299-312.
  • FİSUNOĞLU, H. Mahir and H. Altan ÇABUK (1998), “Düşük Oranlı ve Sürekli Kur Ayarlamalarının Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi”, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 25/2, 297-309.
  • FRIEDMAN, Milton (1956), “The Quantity Theory of Money – A Restatement”, in M. Friedman (ed.), Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, The University of Chicago Press, 3-21.
  • FRIEDMAN, Milton (1968), “The Role of Monetary Policy”, American Economic Review, 58, 1-7.
  • FRY, Maxwell J. (1980), “Money, Interest, Inflation and Growth in Turkey”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 6, 535-545.
  • FRY, Maxwel J. (1986), “Turkey’s Great Inflation”, METU Studies in Development, 13/1-2, 117-134.
  • GAZİOĞLU, Şaziye (1986), “Government Deficits, Consumption and Inflation in Turkey”, METU Studies in Development, 13/1-2, 117-134.
  • GONZALO, Jesus (1994), “Five Alternative Methods of Estimating Long - Run Equilibrium Relationships”, Journal of Econometrics, 60, 203-233.
  • GRANGER, C.W.J. and Paul NEWBOLD ( 1974), “Spurious Regressions in Economics”, Journal of Econometrics, 2/2, 111-120.
  • GÜNÇAVDI, Öner, LEVENT, Haluk ve Burç ÜLENGİN (2000), “Yüksek ve Değişken Karşılaştırılması: Türkiye Örneği”, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 27/1-2, 149- 171. Tahmininde Alternatif Modellerin
  • GÜNÇAVDI, Öner and Burç ÜLENGİN (2001), “Financial Crisis and Inflationary Dynamics in Turkey”, Istanbul Technical University Faculty of Management Discussion Papers in Management Engineering, 01/15.
  • INTERNATİONAL MONETARY FUND (2005), World Economic Outlook, April.
  • JOHANSEN, Sǿren (1991), “Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models”, Econometrica, 59, 1551-1580.
  • JOHANSEN, Sǿren (1995), Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated
  • Vector Autoregressive Models, Oxford University Press.
  • KALIN, Ahmet S. (1989), Enflasyon Analitik Bir Yaklaşım, Filiz Kitabevi, İstanbul.
  • KORU, Ayça Tekin and Erdal ÖZMEN (2003), “Budget Deficits, Money Growth and Inflation: the Turkish Evidence”, Applied Economics, 35/5, 591-596.
  • LAVOIE, Marc (1992), Foundations of Post-Keynesian Economic Analysis, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • LEIGH, Daniel and Marco ROSSI (2002), “Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey”, IMF Working Paper, 02/204.
  • LIM, Cheng Hoon and Laura PAPI (1997), “An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Turkey”, IMF Working Paper, 97/170.
  • MACKINNON, J.G. (1996), “Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 601-618.
  • METİN-ÖZCAN, Kıvılcım (1995), The Analysis of Inflation: The Case of Turkey (1948 - 1988), Sermaye Piyasası Kurulu yayını, No. 20.
  • METİN-ÖZCAN, Kıvılcım (1998), “The Relationship Between Inflation and the Budget Deficit in Turkey”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16/4, 412-422.
  • METİN-ÖZCAN, Kıvılcım, VOYVODA, Ebru and Erinç YELDAN (2000), “On The Patterns of Trade Liberalization, Oligopolistic Concentration and Profitability: Reflections from Post-1980 Turkish Manufacturing”, Paper Presented at the IVth Annual METU Conference on Economics, Ankara, September, 2000
  • MONTIEL, Peter J. (1989), “Empirical Analysis of High-Inflation Episodes in Argentina, Brazil, and Israel”, IMF Staff Papers, 36/3, 527-549.
  • ONGAN, Hakan (2003), “Türkiye’de Enflasyon ve Devalüasyon İlişkisi”, İ.Ü. İkt. Fak. Mecmuası, 53/2, 87-100.
  • ÖNİŞ, Ziya and Süleyman ÖZMUCUR (1990), “Exchange Rates, Inflation and Money Supply in Turkey: Testing the Vicious Circle Hypothesis”, Journal of Development Economics, 32/1, 133-154.
  • ÖZATAY, Fatih (1992), “The Role of Public Sector Prices in Price Dynamics in Turkey”, in H. Ersel (ed.), Price Dynamics Papers Presented at a Workshop Held in Antalya, Turkey on May 7-10,1990, Ankara: CBRT, December, 33-69.
  • ÖZATAY, Fatih (1996), “The Lessons From the 1994 Crisis in Turkey: Public Debt (Mis)management and Confidence Crisis”, Yapı Kredi Economic Review, 7/1, 21-38.
  • ÖZATAY, Fatih (1999), “The 1994 Currency Crisis in Turkey”, Journal of Policy Reform, 3/ 4, 327-352.
  • PAYA, Merih (1998), Para Teorisi ve Para Politikası, Filiz Kitabevi, İstanbul.
  • PHELPS, Edmund S. (1973), “Inflation and the Theory of Public Finance”, Swedish Journal of Economics, 75/1, 67-82.
  • RITTENBERG, Libby (1993), “Exchange Rate Policy and Price Level Changes: Causality Tests for Turkey in the Post Liberalization Period”, The Journal of Development Studies, 29/2, 245-259
  • RODRIK, Dani (1990), “Premature Libaralization, Incomplete Stabilization: The Özal Decade in Turkey”, NBER Working Paper, No. 3300, March.
  • SARGENT, Thomas J. and Neil WALLACE (1981), “Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic”, FRB of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 5/3, 1- 17.
  • SIMS, Christopher A., STOCK, James H. and Mark W. WATSON, (1990), “Inference in Linear Time Series Models With Some Unit Roots”, Econometrica, 58/1, 113-144.
  • TOGAN, Sübidey (1987), “The Influence of Money and the Rate of Interest on the Rate of Inflation in a Financially Repressed Economy: The Case of Turkey”, Applied Economics, 19, 1585-1601.
  • UYGUR, Ercan (1992), “Price, Output and Investment Decisions of Firms: An Explanation of Inflation and Growth in Turkish Industry”, in H. Ersel (ed.), Price Dynamics: Papers Presented at a Workshop Held in Antalya, Turkey on May 7-10, Ankara: CBRT, December, 1-31.
  • YAVUZ ÇİL, Nilgün (2003), “Durağanlık ve Koentegrasyon Analizi Çerçevesinde Kamu Açığı ve Finansmanı Açısından Enflasyon Modelinin Tahmini (1982-2001)”, İ.Ü. İkt. Fak. Mecmuası, 53/2, 101-117.
  • YELDAN, Erinç (2002), Küreselleşme Sürecinde Türkiye Ekonomisi: Bölüşüm, Birikim ve Büyüme, Altıncı Baskı, İletişim Yayınları, İstanbul.