Finansal istikrarsızlık hipotezi, Tobin vergisi ve uluslararası finansal sistem:Post keynesyen vir çerçeve
Minsky'nin finansal istikrarsızlık hipotezinde kapitalist bir ekonomideki dalgalanmalar içseldir. Diğer bir ifadeyle, ekonomik dalgalanmalar ekonominin işleyişinden doğan doğal bir sonuçtur. Firmaların kâr arayışları finansal sistemin kâr arayışları ile birleşince, ekonomi borçlarla finanse edilen yatırımlar sayesinde genişlemektedir. Ancak aşırı borçlanma sürdürülemez noktaya geldiğinde ekonomik kriz kaçınılmaz olmaktadır. Minsky'nin takipçilerine göre benzer bir durum küresel düzeyde de yaşanmakta ve son yılların ekonomik krizleri de bu durumu doğrulamaktadır. Bu çalışmada öncelikle, Post Keynesyen iktisatçılar tarafından tartışılan finansal istikrarsızlık hipotezi açıklanmakta, ardından bu yaklaşımın küresel düzeyde geçerliliğine ilişkin görüşlere değinilmektedir. Bu noktada, başka bir Keynesyen iktisatçı olan Tobin'in döviz işlem vergisinin (Tobin vergisi) Minskiyen bir küresel kırılganlığa çare olup olamayacağı tartışılmıştır. Sonuç olarak, Tobin vergisinin tek başına finansal istikrarı sağlamada başarısız olacağı, ancak uluslararası finansal sisteme ilişkin geniş kapsamlı bir reform setinin bir parçası olması durumunda etkin olabileceği düşünülmektedir.
The financial instability hypothesis, the tax, and international financial system: A post keynesian framework
According to Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis, business cycles in a capitalist economy are endogenous. In other words, business cycles are natural results which take root from operations of economy. When profit seeking behaviours of firms combine with profit seeking behaviours of financial system, economy enlarges through investments which have been financed with debts. However, when excess debts become unsustainable, economic crisis occurs inevitably. According to Minsky’s pursuers, a similar situation is valid globally and recent crises confirms this situation. In this study, the financial instability hypothesis which has been discussed by Post Keynesian economists is explained firstly. Then, the opinions are mentioned which have been concerning validity of this hypothesis globally. At this juncture, a currency transaction tax (Tobin tax) which have been proposed by Tobin as another Keynesian economist is discussed within the framework of whether it will be a cure for Minskian financial fragility or not. As a result, it is expected that Tobin tax will be unsuccesful in providing financial stability on its own but it could be effective if it will have been designed as a part of wide-ranging set of reform on international financial system.
___
- Akyüz, Y. (2008), “Managing financial instability in emerging markets: A Keynesian perspective”, METU Studies in Development, 35 (June).
- Arestis, P. ve Sawyer, M. (1997), “How many cheers for the Tobin transaction tax?”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 21.
- Arestis, P. ve Glickman, M. (2002), “Financial crisis in Southeast Asia: dispelling illusion the Minskyan way”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 26.
- Arestis, P., Basu, S. ve Mallick, S. (2005), “Financial globalization: the need for a single currency and a global central bank”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 27 (3), Spring.
- Crotty, J. (2000), “The case for capital controls”, Political Economy Research Institute Working Paper, July.
- De Antoni, E. (2006), “Minsky on Financial Instability”, P. Arestis ve M. Sawyer (eds), A Handbook of Alternative Monetary Economics, London: Edward Elgar içinde.
- Davidson, P. (1997), “Are grains of sand in the wheels of international finance sufficient to do the job when boulders are often required?”, The Economic Journal, 107, May.
- Davidson, P. (2004), “The future of international financial system”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 26 (4), Summer.
- Erdoğdu, M. ve Balseven, H. (2006), “How Effective is the Tobin Tax in Coping with Financial Volatility?”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6 (1).
- Ertürk, K. A. (2006), “On the Tobin Tax”, Review of Political Economy, 18 (1), January.
- International Monetary Fund (2009), World Economic Outlook April 2009, Washington D.C: International Monetary Fund.
- Işık, S. (2004), “Post Keynesyen Finansal Kırılganlık Yaklaşımının Türkiye Ekonomisindeki Finansal Krizlere (1991-2001) Uygulanması, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 19 (218), Mayıs.
- Keynes, J. M. (1964), The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, New York: Harcourt.
- Kregel, J. A. (2001), “Yes, it ‘did’ happen again-the Minsky crisis in Asia”, R. Bellofiore ve P. Ferri (eds), Financial Keynesianism and Market Instability, Aldershot: Edward Elgar içinde.
- Matsumoto, Y. (2007), Financial Fragility and Instability in Indonesia, New York: Routledge.
- Minsky, H. P. (1982), “The financial-instability hypotesis: capitalist processes and the behavior of the economy”, C. Kindleberger ve J. P. Laffargue (eds), Financial Crises: Theory, history and policy, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press içinde.
- Minsky, H. P. (1986), Stabilizing an Unstable Economy, New Haven: Yale University Press.
- Minsky, H. P. ve Whalen, C. J. (1996/97), “Economic insecurity and the institutional prerequisites for succesful capitalism”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 19 (2), Winter.
- Paul, J. A. ve Wahlberg K. (2002), “Global Taxes for Global Priorities”, Global Policy Forum Working Paper, March.
- Sawyer, M. (2001), “Minsky’s analysis, the European single currency and the global financial system”, R. Bellofiore ve P. Ferri (eds), Financial Keynesianism and Market Instability, Aldershot: Edward Elgar içinde.
- Schroeder, S. K. (2002), A Minskian Analysis of Financial Crisis in Developing Countries, Center for Economic Policy Analysis Working Paper, August. www.newschool.edu/cepa
- Spahn, P. B. (1996), “The Tobin Tax and Exchange Rate Stability”, Finance and Development, 33 (2), June.
- Spahn, P. B. (2002), On the Feasibility of a Tax on Foreign Exchange Transactions, Frankfurt: Report to the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development.
- Tobin, J. (1974), The New Economics One Decade Older, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
- Tobin, J. (1978), “A Proposal for International Monetary Reform”, Eastern Economic Journal, 4 (July/October).
- Tobin, J. (1996), “Prologue”, M. ul Haq, I. Kaul ve I. Grunberg (eds), The Tobin Tax: Coping with Financial Volatility, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Wahl, P. (2005), International Taxation: Regulating Globalisation – Financing Development, Weed Brochure, May. www.weed-online.org.
- Wahl, P. ve Waldow, P. (2001), “Currency Transaction Tax-a Concept With a Future”, Weed Working Paper, February. www.weedbonn.org.
- Weller, C. E. (2001), “Financial Crises After Financial Liberalisation: Exceptional Circumtances or Structual Weakness?”, The Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 38, No. 1.
- ISSN: 1300-1868
- Yayın Aralığı: 3
- Yayıncı: Ekonomik Yaklaşım Derneği