Erdinç TELATAR, I.Muhsine ÖZGÜR, Funda TELATAR

5054

Enflasyon hedefleme rejiminde cari hesap ve döviz kuru dinamikleri

Türkiye'de 2001 yılında yapılan yasal düzenleme ile birlikte, para politikasının birincil hedefi fiyat istikrarının sağlanması olarak belirlenmiş ve enflasyon hedefleme stratejisi benimsenmiştir. Bununla birlikte, 2000'li yıllarda enflasyonu düşürme çabalarının yanısıra cari açık ciddi bir problem haline gelmiştir. Bu çalışmada, ilk olarak enflasyon hedeflemesinin benimsendiği dışa açık bir ekonomide para politikası amaçları ile araçları arasındaki ilişkiler ortaya konulmakta ve Türkiye ekonomisinde para politikası şoklarının cari işlemler hesabı ve reel döviz kuru üzerine etkileri tahmin edilmektedir. Tahmin sonuçlarımız, pozitif para politikası şokunun kısa dönemde cari işlemler hesabı üzerinde olumlu etki yarattığını, ancak bu etkinin uzun dönemde ortadan kalktığını göstermektedir. Bulgularımız, Yeni Açık Ekonomi Makro Ekonomi literatüründe öncü konumundaki redux modelin öngörüleri ile tutarlıdır.

Current account and exchange rate dynamics under an inflation targeting regime

Maintaining price stability has been assigned as the primary objective of monetary policy and the inflation targeting regime has been adopted by the new legal arrangement made in 2001 in Turkey. However, the current account deficit has become a serious problem along with the efforts to decrease inflation during 2000s. In this study, after explaining the relationship between the goals and instruments of monetary policy in an open economy where an inflation targeting regime is implemented, we estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks on the current account and the real exchange rate in the Turkish economy. Our results from the structural VAR estimation show that a positive nominal shock has an favorable effect on the current account in the short run which disappeared in the long run. Our findings are consistent with the predictions of the redux model on which the New Open Economy Macroeconomy literature has been developed.
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Ekonomik Yaklaşım-Cover
  • ISSN: 1300-1868
  • Yayın Aralığı: 3
  • Yayıncı: Ekonomik Yaklaşım Derneği
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