Politik İstikrar ve Demokrasi Finansal Gelişme Üzerinde Etkili mi? Sahra-Altı Afrika Ülkelerinden Kanıtlar

Politik istikrar ve demokrasi gibi kurumsal olgular ile finansal sistem arasındaki etkileşim, uzun yıllardır araştırılan önemli bir konudur. Politik istikrarsızlık ve terör eylemleri Sahra altı Afrika ülkelerinin yaşadığı önemli sorunlardan birkaçıdır. Bu sebeple çalışmada 2002-2019 döneminde Sahra-altı Afrika ülkelerinde politik istikrarın ve demokrasinin finansal sistemin gelişimi üzerindeki etkileri araştırılmıştır. İki Aşamalı Sistem Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Metodu tahmincisinin kullanıldığı çalışmada bağımlı değişken, finansal kurumlar gelişme endeksidir. Çalışmanın açıklayıcı değişkenleri, politik istikrar ve demokrasi göstergeleridir. Kişi başına GSYİH’deki büyüme, ticari açıklık, enflasyon oranı, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve kentsel nüfus oranı ise kontrol değişkeni olarak kullanılmıştır. Yapılan analizler, demokrasi ve politik istikrarın finansal gelişme üzerinde pozitif etkili olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Kontrol değişkenleri açısından; enflasyon oranı finansal gelişme üzerinde negatif etkili olmakta iken gelirdeki artış ve ticari açıklık finansal gelişmeyi pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Elde edilen bulgular ışığında, Sahra altı Afrika ülkelerindeki politika yapıcılara, finansal gelişmeyi sağlamak için, politik istikrarı sağlayıcı ve demokrasi düzeyini arttırıcı düzenlemeler yapmaları tavsiye edilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Politik İstikrar, Kurumsal Ortam, Finansal Gelişme

Are Political Stability and Democracy Effective on Financial Development? Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries

The interaction between institutional phenomena such as political stability and democracy and the financial system is an important issue that has been researched for many years. Political instability and acts of terrorism are some of the important problems faced by sub-Saharan African countries. For this reason, in this study, the effects of political stability and democracy on the financial system in Sub-Saharan African countries during the period from 2002 to 2019 are investigated. In the study, in which the Two-Stage System Generalized Moments Method estimator was used, the dependent variable is the financial institutions development index. The explanatory variables of the study are the indicators of political stability and democracy. The control variables are the growth in GDP per capita, trade openness, inflation rate, foreign direct investment, and urban population ratio. The analyses display that democracy and political stability have positive effects on financial development. In terms of control variables, while the inflation rate has a negative effect on financial development, economic growth and trade openness affect financial development positively. In light of the findings, it is recommended that policymakers in Sub-Saharan African countries make arrangements to ensure political stability and increase the level of democracy to ensure financial development.

Keywords:

Politic Stability, Democracy, Financial Development,

PDF

___

Acemoglu, D. and Johnson, S. (2005). Unbundling institutions. Journal of Political Economy, 113(6), 949-995. https://doi.org/10.1086/432166
Acemoglu, D. (2008). Oligarchic vs. democratic societies. Journal of the European Economic Association, 6(1), 1-44. https://doi.org/10.1162/JEEA.2008.6.1.1
Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., Robinson, J. and Thaichaoren, Y. (2003). Institutional causes, macro economic symptoms: Volatility, crises and growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(1), 49-123. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(02)00208-8
Aksoy, M. (2014). The effects of terrorism on Turkish stock market. Ege Academic Rewiew, 14(1), 31-41. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/eab
Alexander, Y. (2015). Media and terrorism. In D. Carlton and C. Schaerf (Eds.), Contemporary terror studies in sub-state violence (pp. 50-65). Routledge.
Alhassan, A., Li, L., Reddy, K. and Duppati, G. (2019). The relationship between political instability and financial inclusion: Evidence from Middle East and North Africa. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 26(1), 353-374. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1793
Anayiotos, G.C. and Toroyan, H. (2009). Institutional factors and financial sector development: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa (IMF Working Paper No 2009/258). Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/Institutional-Factors-and-Financial-Sector-Development-Evidence-from-Sub-Saharan-Africa-23418
Arellano, M. and Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental-variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29-52. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01642-D
Batila Ngouala Kombo, P. and Bongo Koumou, G. (2021). The role of the quality of institutions in the financial development of CEMAC countries. Modern Economy, 12(2), 452-468. https://doi.org/10.4236/me.2021.122023
Beck, T. and Levine, R. (2003). Legal institutions and financial development (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3136). Retrieved from https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/pdf/10.1596/1813-9450-3136 Begović, B., Mladenović, Z. and Popović, D. (2017). Democracy, financial development, and economic growth: An empirical analysis (CLDS Working Paper #0317). Retrieved from https://www.clds.rs/newsite/Democracy%20financial%20intermediation%20and%20economic%20growth%20WP0317.pdf
Bekana, A.M. (2023). Governance quality and financial development in Africa. World Development Sustainability, 2, 100044. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wds.2023.100044
Bist, J.P. (2018). Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from a panel of 16 African and Non-African low-income countries. Cogent Economics & Finance, 6(1), 1449780. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2018.1449780
Blundell, R. and Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moments restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8
Can Gaberli, Y, Gaberli, Ü. and Güler, M.E. (2022). Impact of political stability and absence of violence/terrorism on tourism: A panel co-integration analysis. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 20(4), 387-400. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1168124
Chesney, M., Reshetar G. and Karaman, M. (2011). The impact of terrorism on financial markets: An empirical study. Journal of Banking & Finance, 35(2), 253-267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2010.07.026
Eldor, R. and Melnick, R. (2004). Financial markets and terrorism. European Journal of Political Economy, 20(2), 367-386. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2004.03.002
Ellahi, N., Kiani, A.K, Awais, M., Affandi, H., Saghir, R. and Qaim, S. (2021). Investigating the institutional determinants of financial development: Empirical evidence from SAARC countries. SAGE Open, 11(2). https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440211006029
Elnahass, M., Marie, M. and Elgammal, M. (2022). Terrorist attacks and bank financial stability: Evidence from MENA economies. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 59, 383-427. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-022-01043-1
Gries, T., Kraft, M. and Meierrieks, D. (2009). Linkages between financial deepening, trade openness and economic development: Causality evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. World Development, 37(12), 1849-1860. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2009.05.008
Gurley, J.G. and Shaw, E.S. (1955). Financial aspects of economic development. The American Economic Review, 45(4), 515-538. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/
Holmwood, J. (2020). “İşlevselcilik” Sosyoloji sözlüğü (Ed. B. Turner, Çev. K. Akbaş ve A. Beyaz). İstanbul: Pinhan.
Huang, C-L., Chen, C-R. and Huarng, F. (2010). The impacts of political instability on banking development and operational efficiencies. Retrieved from http://www.iippe.org/wiki/images/0/05/CONF_FINANCE_Huang.pdf
IMF (2023). Financial development index database [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://data.imf.org/?sk=f8032e80-b36c-43b1-ac26-493c5b1cd33b
Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A. and Mastruzzi, M. (2011). The worldwide governance indicators: Methodology and analytical issues. Hague Journal on the Rule of Law, 3(2), 220-246. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1876404511200046
La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A. and Vishny, R.W. (1998). Law and finance. Journal of Political Economy, 106(6), 1113-1155. https://doi.org/10.1086/250042
Liu, W.M and Ngo, P.T.H. (2014). Elections, political competition and bank failure. Journal of Financial Economics, 112(2), 251-268. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2014.02.005
Manasseh C.O., Asogwa, F. and Attama, M. (2014). Financial sector development: Evidence from institutional reforms in Nigeria. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 5(15), 128-142. Retrieved from https://www.iiste.org/Journals/index.php/RJFA
Marx, K. (1979). Ekonomi politiğin eleştirisine katkı (Çev. S. Belli). Ankara: Sol Yayınları.
McKinnon, R.I. (1973). Money and capital in economic development. Washington: The Brookings Institution.
O’Donnell, G. and Schmitter, P.C. (1986). Transitions from authoritarian rule tentative conclusions about uncertain democracies. Baltimore: The John Hopkins University Press.
Okara, A. (2023). Does foreign direct investment promote political stability? Evidence from developing economies. Economic Modelling, 123, 106249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106249
Ouedraogo, R., Mlachila, M., Sourouema, W.S. and Compaoré, A. (2022). The impact of conflict and political instability on banking crises in developing countries. The World Economy, 45(6), 1937-1977. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13218
Patrick, H.T. (1966). Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14, 174-189. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/
Qassem, A.S. (2009). Afghanistan’s political stability. Oxford: Routledge.
Rajan, R.G. and Zingales, L. (2003). The great reversals: The politics of financial development in the twentieth century. Journal of Financial Economics, 69(1), 5-50. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(03)00125-9
Rathinam, F.X. and Raja, A.V. (2010). Law regulation and institutions for financial development: Evidence from India. Emerging Markets Review, 11(2), 106-118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2010.01.002
Robinson, J. (1952). The generalization of the general theory, in the rate of interest and other essays. London: MacMillan.
Roe, M.J. and Siegel, J.I. (2011). Political instability: Its effects on financial development, its roots in the severity of economic inequality. Journal of Comparative Economics, 39(3), 279-309. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2011.02.001
Sarma, M. (2008). Index of financial inclusion (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, Working Paper No. 215). Retrieved from https://www.icrier.org/pdf/Working_Paper_215.pdf
Schumpeter, J. (1911). The theory of economic development. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Shaw, E. (1973). Financial deepening in economic development. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Shnekat, B. and Al-Assaf, G. (2020). The impact of political stability on the effectiveness of the early warning systems in predicting the financial crises: The case of Jordan and Qatar. International Journal of Financial Research, 11(4), 398-407. https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v11n4p398
Svirydzenka, K. (2016). Introducing a new broad-based index of financial development (IMF Working Paper No. 2016/005). Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/Introducing-a-New-Broad-based-Index-of-Financial-Development-43621
Thangavelu, S.M. and James, A.B.J. (2004). Financial development and economic growth in Australia: An empirical analysis. Empirical Economics, 29(2), 247-260. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-003-0163-7
The World Bank. (1989). Sub-Saharan Africa from crisis to sustainable growth: A long-term perspective study (The World Bank Working Paper No. 8209). Retrieved from https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/498241468742846138/pdf/multi0page.pdf
The World Bank. (2023). World development indicators (WDI) [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
The World Bank, (2023). World wide governance indicators (WGI) [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/worldwide-governance-indicators
The World Bank. (2023). World wide governance indicators documents (2023) [Dateset]. Retrieved from https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/Home/Documents
UNDP. (2023). Calculating the human development indices graphical presentation (UNDP Human Development Reports, Technical Notes). Retrieved from https://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/2021-22_HDR/hdr2021-22_technical_notes.pdf
Yang, B. (2011). Does democracy foster financial development? An empirical analysis. Economics Letters, 112(3), 262-265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2011.05.012