Likidite Bolluğu Ekseninde Kaldıraç ve Dış Borçlanma Şirketlere Değer Kattı mı? Borsa İstanbul Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Uluslararası para piyasalarında 2009 yılından itibaren faiz oranlarının oldukça düşük seviyelerde seyretmesi sermaye piyasalarında likiditenin bollaşmasına yol açmıştır. Yaşanan likidite bolluğu 2019 yılına kadar sürmüş, sonrasında alınan kararlar doğrultusunda faiz oranlarının sert bir şekilde yükselmesi likidite kıtlığı dönemini başlatmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı likidite bolluğu ve kıtlığı dönemlerinde, şirketlerin kaldıraç, dış borçlanma düzeyi ile piyasa değeri ilişkisini farklı yönde etkileyip etkilemediğinin incelenmesidir. Çalışmada Borsa İstanbul imalat sanayi şirketlerinin likidite bolluğu ve kıtlığı dönemlerini kapsayan 2010-2022 döneminde, 190 şirket ve 52 çeyrek dönemlik veri kullanılarak analiz gerçekleştirilmiştir. Sistem GMM tahmincisi yanında diğer dirençli tahmin yöntemi olan Driscoll-Kraay yöntemi ile modeller tahmin edilmiştir. Gerçekleştirilen analiz sonucunda, likidite bolluğu ve kıtlığı döneminde modellerin tahmin bulgularının farklılaştığı tespit edilmiştir. Likidite bolluğu döneminde şirketlerin kaldıraç düzeyi piyasa değeri arasında pozitif yönlü bir ilişki; dış borçlanma düzeyleri ile piyasa değeri arasında bir ilişki olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Likidite kıtlığı döneminde ise şirketlerin dış borçlanma düzeyinin piyasa değerini azaltıcı yönde etkisi olduğu, kaldıraç düzeyi ile piyasa değeri arasında ilişki bulunmadığı bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Her iki dönemde tam tersi bulgular elde edilmesinde, farklılaşan faiz oranları sebebiyle finansal kaldıracın vergi tasarrufu avantajının bu sürece etki edebileceği düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Kaldıraç, Dış Borçlanma, Likidite Bolluğu, Firma Değeri

Do Leverage and External Debt Add Value to Companies from the Perspective of Liquidity Abundance? Evidence from Borsa Istanbul

The low level of interest rates in international money markets since 2009 led to an abundance of liquidity in capital markets. The abundance of liquidity lasted until 2019, after which interest rates rose sharply in line with the decisions taken, beginning a period of liquidity scarcity. The purpose of this study is to examine whether the relationship between firms' leverage, external borrowing level and market capitalization is affected differently during periods of liquidity abundance and scarcity. In the study, the analysis was conducted using 190 companies and 52 quarterly data for the period 2010-2022, which covers the periods of liquidity abundance and scarcity of Borsa Istanbul manufacturing industry companies. In addition to the system GMM estimator, models are estimated with the Driscoll-Kraay method, which is another robust estimation method. As a result of the analysis, it is observed that the estimation findings of the models differ according to the period of liquidity abundance and scarcity. During the liquidity abundance period, there is a positive relationship between the leverage level of firms and market capitalization, while there is no relationship between external borrowing levels and market capitalization. On the other hand, in the period of liquidity scarcity, it is found that the external debt of companies has a decreasing effect on market value and there is no relationship between leverage level and market value. The opposite findings in both periods may indicate that the tax saving advantage of financial leverage has an impact on this process due to different interest rates.

Keywords:

Leverage, External Debt, Liquidity Abundance, Corporate Value,

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