Hasan DİNÇER, Serhat YÜKSEL, Mustafa Tevfik KARTAL

6036

Finansal ve Ekonomik Kararlılık Sağlayabilmek İçin Rekabetçi Piyasalarda Banka Faiz Oranının Rolü

Finansal ve ekonomik istikrar, ülkelerin iki ana önemli kavramıdır. Bu hedefe ulaşmak için hükümetler tarafından birçok farklı eylemde bulunulmuştur. Bu süreçte, faiz oranı kilit bir rol oynamaktadır, çünkü esas olarak yatırımların maliyetini ve tarafların tüketim kararlarını etkilemektedir. Dolayısıyla, faiz oranının belirleyicileri daha etkin bir finansal piyasaya sahip olmak için tanımlanmalıdır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye'deki banka faiz oranını etkileyen faktörleri belirlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu çerçevede, literatür taramasına dayanarak yedi farklı bağımsız değişken seçilmiştir. Ayrıca, 2001:01 ve 2018:02 dönem aralığı için bu değişkenlerin üç aylık verileri dikkate alınmıştır. Ayrıca, analizde çok değişkenli uyarlanmış regresyon uzanımları (MARS) modeli kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, enflasyonun, dış borcun, bütçe açığının, cari açığın ve yüksek petrol fiyatlarının Türkiye'deki yüksek faiz oranının belirleyicisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu nedenle, Türk hükümetinin bu makroekonomik sorunları en aza indirmek için bazı adımlar atması gerektiği açıktır. Bu bağlamda, enflasyon hedefleme planı hükümet ve merkez bankasının koordinasyonunda daha etkin bir şekilde uygulanmalıdır. Ek olarak, bütçe açığını önlemek için bütçe disiplini sürdürülmelidir. Ayrıca, cari işlemler açığının azaltılması gerektiğinden hükümetin ithal mallara olan talebi azaltabilmesi için bazı önlemler alması gerekmektedir. Bu eylemler sayesinde, Türkiye'deki faiz oranını düşürmek daha mümkün olabilecektir. Düşük faiz oranı, sürdürülebilir finansal ve ekonomik büyümeye katkıda bulunan yatırımlar üzerinde artan bir etkiye sahiptir.
Anahtar Kelimeler:

MARS, Faiz Oranı, Türkiye, Finansal Gelişme, Sürdürülebilir Ekonomik Büyüme

The Role Of Bank Interest Rate In The Competıtıve Emergıng Markets To Provıde Fınancıal and Economıc Stabılıty

Financial and economic stability are two main significant concepts of the countries. Many different actions are taken in order to reach this objective. In this process, interest rate plays a key role because it mainly affects the cost of investments and consumption decisions of the parties. Therefore, the determinants of interest rate should be identified to have more effective financial market. This study aims to determine the influencing factors of bank interest rate in Turkey. Within this framework, seven different independent variables are selected based on literature review. Moreover, quarterly data of these variables for the periods between 2001:01 and 2018:02 is taken into the consideration. Furthermore, multivariate adoptive regression splines (MARS) model is used in the analysis process. The findings show that inflation, foreign debt, budget deficit, current account deficit and high oil price are the main determinants of high interest rate in Turkey. Therefore, it is obvious that Turkish government should take some actions to minimize these macroeconomic problems. In this context, inflation targeting plan should be implemented more effectively with the coordination of the government and central bank. Additionally, budget discipline should be maintained in order to prevent budget deficit. Furthermore, the government should take some measures to reduce the demand for imported goods, so current account deficit can be decreased. With the help of these actions, it can be more possible to decrease interest rate in Turkey. Lower interest rate has an increasing effect on the investment which contributes sustainable financial and economic growth.
Keywords:

MARS, Interest Rate, Turkey, Financial Development, Sustainable Economic Growth,

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Ekonomi İşletme ve Maliye Araştırmaları Dergisi-Cover
  • Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 3 Sayı
  • Başlangıç: 2018
  • Yayıncı: İrfan ERSİN
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