Ege Bölgesinde Standart Yağış Evapotranspirasyon İndeksi (SPEI) ile kuraklık değerlendirmesi

Amaç: Kuraklık, son yıllarda artan iklim değişikliğinin de etkisi ile su kaynakları ve tarımsal üretimi olumsuz etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye tarımsal üretiminin önemli bir kısmının gerçekleştirildiği Ege Bölgesinde Standart Yağış Evapotranspirasyon İndeksi (SPEI) ile kuraklığın zamansal ve mekânsal değişimini incelemektir. Materyal ve Yöntem: Çalışmada Ege bölgesinde bulunan 29 meteoroloji istasyonuna ait 1975-2014 yılları arasındaki iklim parametreleri kullanılmıştır. Aylık toplam yağış ve referans evapotranspirasyon (ETo) değerleri kullanılarak farklı zaman ölçeklerinde (1, 3, 6, 12 ve 24 aylık) Standart Yağış Evapotranspirasyon İndisi (SPEI) değerleri elde edilmiştir. Aylık ETo değerleri Penman-Monteith (FAO 56) yöntemine göre hesaplanmıştır. Araştırma Bulguları: Ege Bölgesi genelinde SPEI değerlerine göre şiddetli ve çok şiddetli kuraklıkların yaşandığı görülmüştür. Özellikle 1989,1993, 2007, 2008, 2011 ve 2012 kuraklıkların yaşandığı yıllar olmuştur. Ege Bölgesinde 2007-2008 yılları çok şiddetli kuraklıkların kaydedildiği yıllar olmuştur. SPEI değerlerinin uzun zaman ölçeğinde kurak periyotları mekânsal olarak daha belirgin tespit edebilme potansiyeline sahip olduğu görülmüştür. Uzun zaman ölçeğindeki SPEI değerleri kesintisiz uzun kurak dönemlerin tanımlanmasında daha yararlı sonuçlar üretirken, kısa zaman ölçeklerinde ise kısa periyotlar halinde ve sayısal olarak daha fazla kurak dönemler elde edilmiştir. Sonuç: SPEI, kuraklık riskine karşı tarımsal üretimin ve su kaynaklarının planlanması, sosyo-ekonomik etkilerin en aza indirebilmesi için karar vericilere önemli bilgiler sağlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Evapotranspirasyon, iklimsel su dengesi, jeoistatistik, kuraklık indisleri, kuraklık şiddeti, Penman-Monteith

Evaluation of drought with Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in the Aegean Region

Objective: Water resources and agricultural production are affected negatively by drought with the effect of increasing climate change in recent years. The objective of this study was to examine temporal and spatial distribution of the drought with Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in Aegean Region in which is carried out a significant part of agricultural production of Türkiye. Material and Methods: Climatic values between 1975 and 2014 of 29 meteorological stations were used in throughout Aegean Region. SPEI values were obtained at different time scales (1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months) by using monthly total precipitation (P) and reference evapotranspiration (ETo). Monthly ETo values were calculated according to Penman-Monteith (FAO 56) method. Results: According to the SPEI values, severe and extreme droughts were observed in the entire Aegean Region. Especially in 1989, 1993, 2007, 2008, 2011 and 2012 drought events were experienced. Extreme droughts were recorded in 2007 and 2008. Thus, it has been observed that SPEI values have the potential to determine spatially drought periods on a long-time scale. While SPEI values at long time scales was produced more useful results to define uninterrupted long drought periods, on the contrary, at shorter time scales it was obtained drought events which are shorter periods and a greater number of them. Conclusion: SPEI provides important information to decision makers in planning agricultural production and water resources against the risk of drought and minimizing socio-economic impacts.

Keywords:

Evapotranspiration, climatic water balance, geostatistics, drought indices, drought severity, Penman-Monteith.,

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