Erhan YILDIRIM, Kenan LOPCU, Selim ÇAKMAKLI, Özlem ÖZKAN

YENİ KEYNESYEN MAKRO EKONOMİK BİR MODEL: TÜRKİYE UYGULAMASI

1990’ların sonunda iktisat yazınında Yeni NeoKlasik Sentez ya da Yeni Keynesyen Makro Model (YKMM) olarak adlandırılan bir uzlaşma meydana gelmiştir. Bu uzlaşmanın temel özelliği, Yeni Klasik, Reel İş Çevrim Kuramı ve Yeni Keynesyen İktisatın fikirlerinin sentezinden oluşmasıdır. YKMM bir enflasyon denklemi, bir toplam talep denklemi ve bir para politikası kuralından meydana gelmektedir. Bu çalışmada YKMM’i tahmin etmek ve bu modelin Türkiye ekonomisindeki dalgalanmaları açıklamada kullanışlı olup olmadığını belirlemek için tam bilgi maksimum olabilirlik (The Full Information Maximum Likelihood, FIML) yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen ilk bulgular, YKMM’in Türkiye ekonomisindeki dalgalanmaları açıklamakta kullanılabileceğini göstermektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Yeni keynesyen makro model, taylor kuralı, parasal politika, tam bilgi maksimum olabilirlik yöntemi

A New Keynesian Macro Economic Model: Application to Turkish Economy

A new consensus in macroeconomics called the New Neo-Classical Synthesis or New Keynesian Macroeconomic Model (NKMM) emerged at the end of the 1990s. The fundamental feature of this consensus is that it is formed by the synthesis of ideas from the New Classical, Real Business Cycle, and New Keynesian Models. The NKMM consists of an inflation equation, an aggregate demand equation, and a monetary policy rule. In this paper, the full information maximum likelihood (FIML) method is used to estimate the NKMM and determine whether it is useful in explaining the fluctuations in the Turkish economy. The first implications show that the NKMM can be used to explain the fluctuations in the Turkish economy

Keywords:

The new keynesian macroeconomic model, taylor rule, monetary policy, full information maximum likelihood method,

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