Türkiye Avrupa Birliği’ne Yakınsıyor Mu? Bir Zaman Serisi Analizi, 1950-2008

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin 1950-2008 döneminde Avrupa Birliği’ne (ve Birliğin ülkelerine) kişi başına gelir bağlamında yakınsama gösterip göstermediği araştırılmıştır. Araştırma için zaman serisi yöntemleri kullanılmış ve hem stokastik yakınsama hem de β-yakınsaması test edilmiştir. Serilerdeki olası kırılmalar dikkate alınarak yapılan analiz sonuçlarına göre Türkiye Avrupa Birliği’ne kişi başına gelir bağlamında bir yakınsama göstermemektedir. Üye ülkelerin dikkate alındığı durumda ise Türkiye’nin Avrupa Birliği üyesi 17 ülkeden geri kaldığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar Türkiye’nin gerek Avrupa Birliği’nin gerekse üye ülkelerin gerisinde kaldığına işaret etmektedir. Çalışma sonuçları Türkiye’nin Birliğe katılabilmek için sosyal ve siyasal reformları gerçekleştirmesinin yanı sıra, ekonomik alanda da gelişme göstermesi gereğine dikkat çekmektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Yakınsama, yakalama, Avrupa Birliği ve Türkiye

Does Turkey Converging to the European Union?A Time Series Analysis, 1950-2008

In this study, it has been investigated whether there is a convergence between Turkey and EU (and related countries) in the context of per capita income for the period 1950-2008. Both stochastic and β-convergence have been tested by using time series methods. According to the results, there has no convergence tendency between Turkey and EU even if structural breaks are taken in to account. Furthermore, it has been detected that Turkey falls behind of 17 member countries of the EU. These results indicates that Turkey falls behind of both EU and the member countries in the context of per capita income and he must take more progress in economic area to be member of the Union in addition to social and political reforms

Keywords:

Convergence, catch-up, European Union and Turkey,

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