Orta Asyada İslami Bankacıllığın Gelişimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme İişkisi: Kazakistan Örneğinde Nedensellik Analizi

Bu çalışmada, İslami bankacılık özelinde finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi, gelişmekte olan piyasalar içerisinde yer alan Orta Asya ülkeleri için, Kazakistan örneğinde Toda Yamamoto Nedensellik testi ve Frekans Alanı Nedensellik Testi ile 2010-2020 dönemi için analiz edilmiştir. Finansal gelişme göstergesi olarak literatürde yaygın bir şekilde ele alınmakta olan, İslami bankalarda ticari müşterilere kullandırılan fonlar ve Gayri Sayfi Milli Hasıla'ya (GSMH) ait üç aylık veriler kullanılmıştır. Analiz için, yapısal kırılmalara izin veren birim kök testlerinden faydalanılmıştır. Durağanlığın tespiti sonrası serilerin özellikleri dikkate alınarak İslami bankacılık gelişimi ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Toda Yamamoto nedensellik testi ile test edilmiştir. Nedenselliğin geçici ve kalıcı etkilerinin varlığının tespiti bağlamında, Breitung ve Candelon (2006) tarafından geliştirilen kısa, orta ve uzun dönem ayrımı yapılarak nedensellik analizini sağlayan Frekans Alanı Nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Analizler sonucunda, ekonomik büyümeden İslami bankacılığa doğru tek yönlü ve kalıcı nedensellik tespit edilmiştir. Talep takipli hipotezi doğrulayan bu sonuçlar üzerinden politika önerileri getirilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ekonomik Büyüme, Finansal Gelişme, İslami Bankacılık Augmented Dickey-Fuller Testi (ADF), Toda-Yamamoto Yaklaşımı, Nedensellik Analizi

The Relationship Between Islamic Banking Development and Economic Growth in Central Asia: Causality Analysis In a Case of Kazakhstan

In this study, the causation relationship between financial development and economic growth in the Islamic banking feature was analyzed for Central Asian countries involved in emerging markets for the period 2010-2020 with the Toda Yamamoto Causation test and Frequency Area Causation Test in the case of Kazakhstan. As a gauge of financial development, was used funds given for business customers in Islamic banks and quarterly data for Gross Domestic Product (GDP). For analysis unit root tests, allowing for structural fractures was used. The causation relationship between Islamic banking development and economic growth has been tested by the Toda Yamamoto causation test, taking into account the specifics of series after determination of stasis. In the context of determining the existence of transient and lasting effects of causation, the Frequency Area Causality test, developed by Breitung and Candelon (2006), was made short, medium and long term separation, providing causation analysis. As a result of the analysis, one-way and persistent causation has been identified from economic growth to Islamic banking. Policy recommendations have been made through these results that validate the demand-tracked hypothesis.

Keywords:

Economic Growth, Financial Development, Islamic Banking, Toda-Yamamoto Approach, Causality Analysis.,

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