Türkiye’de reel döviz kuru ile ihracat ve ithalat arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi: 1990 – 2006

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de reel döviz kurları ile ihracat ve ithalat arasındaki etkileşim Granger nedensellik testi kullanılarak araştırılmıştır.Granger nedensellik ilişkisini belirlemeden önce, birim kök ve eşbütünleşme analizi yapılmıştır. Zaman serisi teknikleri kullanılarak elde edilen bulgulara göre, reel döviz kurları ile ihracat ve ithalat arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkinin varlığı görülmüştür. Diğer taraftan, reel döviz kuru ile ihracat ve ithalat arasında bulunan nedensellik ilişkisi, ihracat ve ithalattan reel döviz kuruna doğru tek yönlü bir ilişki biçiminde olmaktadır

The causal relationship between the real exchange rate and export and import in Turkey:1990-2006

In this study, we investigate the interactions between the real exchange rates and export and import applying bivariate Granger causality test in Turkey. To determine the appropriate Granger causality relations, unit root and cointegtration models are used. With time-series techniques, it is found that there is a cointegrating relationship between the real exchange rates and export and import. On the other hand, our results indicate that there is a unidrectional causality from export and import to the real exchange rates

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