EMEK VERİMLİLİĞİ VE İHRACAT İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRK İMALAT SANAYİ ÖRNEĞİ

Bu çalışmada, emek verimliliği ve ihracat ilişkisi Türk İmalat Sanayi örneğinde incelenmiştir. Bu amaçla, 2005:Q1 ile 2015:Q2 arası döneme ait üçer aylık veri ve zaman serisi yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Emek verimliliği çalışan kişi başına üretim endeksi ve çalışan saat başına üretim endeksi ile ölçülmüştür. Analizde öncelikle, Genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller ve Phillips-Perron durağanlık testleri uygulanmıştır. Durağanlık testleri sonucunda, bütün değişkenlerin birinci farklarında durağan oldukları tespit edilmiştir. Ardından, Engle-Granger eşbütünleşme testi uygulanmıştır. Emek verimliliği ve ihracat arasında uzun dönem ilişkisi incelenmiştir. Eşbütünleşme analizi sonucunda, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Son olarak, hata düzeltme modeli dâhilinde Granger nedensellik analizi yapılmıştır. Bunun sonucunda emek verimliliğinden ihracata doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Buna göre, Türk İmalat Sanayi’nde Posner’in (1961) teknolojik açık teorisi ile Vernon’un (1966) ürün dönemleri teorilerinin verimlilik ve ihracat ilişkisine yönelik öngörülerini destekleyici sonuçlara ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

İhracat, Emek Verimliliği, Engle-Granger, Hata Düzeltme Modeli, Granger Nedensellik

THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN LABOR PRODUCTIVITY AND EXPORT: EVIDENCE FROM TURKISH MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY

This paper examines the relationship between export and labor productivity by using time series method of forecasting and quarterly data from 2005:Q1 to 2015:Q2 for Turkish Manufacturing Industry. Index of production per person employed and index of production per hour worked were used as labor productivity indicators. Before examining long and short run relationship, Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests were applied to determine time series characteristics of variables. According to the results of these tests all variables were found to be stationary in their first differences. Then, Engle-Granger cointegration approach was applied to determine long run relationship between labor productivity and export. Results of cointegration test support long run relationship among the variables. Finally, error correction models were estimated and Granger causality tests were implemented. Results of causality tests show a unidirectional relationship from labor productivity to export. This finding supports predictions of Posner’s (1961) technological gap theory and Vernon’s (1966) product life cycles theory for the Turkish Manufacturing Sector.

Keywords:

Exports, Labor Productivity, Engle-Granger, Error Correction Model, Granger Causality,

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