ULUSLARARASI FUTBOL TURNUVALARININ SONUÇLARI TAHMİN EDİLEBİLİR Mİ? EURO 2000 ÖRNEĞİ
Bu çalışma Euro 2000 futbol turnuvasını hangi finalist ülkenin kazanabileceğini istatiksel olarak analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Euro 2000 futbol turnuvasına katılan finalist ülkelerin birinci liglerinde oluşan yıl sonu puan tablolarından hesaplanan değişim katsayısı DK bu öngörü için kullanılmıştır. Euro 2000 futbol turnuvası öncesi her finalist ülke için hesaplanan son on yılın DK değerleri, finalistlerin futboldaki rekabetçiliklerini sıralamada ve Euro 2000'ni kazanmalarında tek belirleyici değişken olarak kullanılmıştır. On beş finalist ülke için hesaplanan uzun, orta ve kısa dönem DK değerlerinden oluşturulan senaryolara göre Euro 2000 ni Fransa'nın kazanmasının en muhtemel olduğu ve İspanya nın ise diğer bir güçlü aday olduğu öngörülmüştür.
CAN WE PREDICT THE OUTCOME OF THE INTERNATIONAL FOOTBALL TOURNAMENTS? : THE CASE OF EURO 2000
This paper statistically analyses and attempts to predict the most likely winners of the Euro 2000 football tournament on the basis of the seasonal coefficients of variation CVs of the end-of-season points, which were computed from the top division final standings of participating countries of Euro 2000. The CV values computed from over ten seasons for the respective countries were used as a sole measurement value to rank the countries and to determine the most likely winners of Euro 2000. According to the three scenarios long-term, mid-term, and short-term based on the respective CV values of fifteen countries, France appeared to be the most likely country to win Euro 2000 and was closely followed by Spain.
___
- BAIMBRIDGE, M. (1997). Match attendance at Euro 96 : was the crowd waving or
drowning ? Applied Economics Letters, 4, pp.555-558.
- BAIMBRIDGE, M., CAMERON, M.S., & DAWSON, P. (1996). Satellite television
and demand for football : a whole new ball game ? Scottish Journal ofPolitical
Economy,43,VV3n-333.
- BERNARD, A.B., & BUSSE, M.R. (2000). Who wins the olympic games ? NBER
Working Paper No. W7998.
- BORLAND, J. & MACDONALD, R. (2003). Demand for sport. Oxford Review of
EconomicPolicy, 19, pp.479-501.
- BRYAN, L.B. & STEKLER, H.O. (1999). Are sports seedings good predictors ? :
an evaluation. International Journal ofForecasting, 15, pp.83-91.
- BROWN, W.O., & SAUER, R.D. (1993). Does the basketball market believe in the
hot hand ? : comment. The American Economic Review, 83, pp. 1377-1386.
- CAIRNS, J. A. (1990). The demand for professional team sports. British Review of
Economic Issues,U,VV.\-2\.
- CAIRNS, J. A. (1988). Outcome of uncertainty and the demand for football.
University of Aberdeen Department ofEconomics Discussion Paper, 88-02.
- . (1987). Evaluating changes in league structure: the reorganization
of the scottish football league. Applied Economics, 19, pp.259-275.
- CAIRNS, J. A. Jennet, N. & Sloane, P.J. (1986). The economics of professional
team sports: a survey of theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Studies, 13,
pp.3-81.
- CAMERER, C. (1989). Does the basketball market believe in the hot hand ? The
American Economic Review, 79, pp.1257-1261.
- CONDON, E.M. GOLDEN, B.L. & WASIL (1999). Predicting the success of
nations at the summer olympics using neural networks, Computers and
Operations Research, 26, pp.243-265.
- DEMMERT, H. (1973). The economics ofprofessional team sports. Massachusetts,
LexingtonBooks.
- DDCON, M.J. & COLES, S.G. (1997) Moddling association football scores and
ineffıciencies in the UK football betting market. Journal of Royal Statistical
SocietySeriesC, 46, 265-280.
- DOBSON, S.M. & GODDARD, J.A. (1992). The demand for football in the regions
of England and Wales. Regional Studies, 30, pp.443-453.
- DOWNARD, P. & DAWSON, A. (2000) The Economics ofprofessional team
sports. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
- EL-HODIRI, M. & QUIRK, J. (1971). An economic model ofprofessional sports
leagues. Journal ofPolitical Economy, 33, pp. 1302-1319.
- FALTER, J.M. & PERIGNON, C. (2000). Demand for football and interamatch
winning probability: an essay on the glorious uncertainty of sports. Applied
Economics,32,VV.n57-n65.
- FORREST, D., SIMMONS, R. & FEEHAN, P. (2002b). A spatial cross-sectional
analysis of the elasticity of demand for soccer. Scottish Journal ofPolitical
Economy, 49,VV336-355.
- FORREST, D. & SIMMONS, R. (2002a). Outcome uncertainty and attendance in
sport: the case of English soccer. The Statistician, 51, pp.229-241.
- . (2000). Forecasting sport: the behaviour and
performance of football tipsters. International Journal of Forecasting, 16,
pp.317-331.
- FORT, R. D. (2000). European and north American sports economics differences.
Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 47, pp.431-435.
- GARCIA, J. & RODRIOUEZ, P. (2002). The determinants of football match
attendance revisited: empirical evidence from the Spanish football league.
Journal of Sports Economic, 3, pp.53-64.
- HALICIOGLU, F. (1998). The degree of competition in the european football
leagues: a statistical approach. "Sports in The City" Conference Proceedings,
Sheffıeld Hallam University, 1, pp.189-205.
- HOFFMANN, R., GING, L.G. & RAMASAMY, B. (2002). The socio-economic
determinants of international soccer performance. Journal of Applied
Economics, 5, pp.253-272.
- HUMPHREYS, B. (2002). Alternative measures of competitive balance in sporting
leagues. Journal of Sports Economics, 3, pp.133-148.
- HOEHN, T. & SZYMANSKI, S. (2000). The Americanization of European football.
Economic Policy, 28, VV.205-240.
- JENNETH, N. (1984). Attendances, uncertainty of outcome and policy in Scottish
league football. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 33, pp. 176-198.
- JONES, J.C.H. (1969). The economics of the national hockey league. Canadian
Journal of Economics, 2, pp.1-20.
- KONING, R.H. (2000). Balance in competition in Dutch soccer. The Statistician,
49,pp.419-431.
- LEBOVIC, J.H. & SIGELMAN, L. (2001). The forecasting accuracy and
determinants of football rankings. International Journal of Forecasting, 17,
pp.105-120.
- NOLL, R. (ed.) (1974). Government and sports business. Brookings Papers.
PEEL, D. & THOMAS, D. (1996). Attendance demand: an investigation of repeat
fıxtures. Applied Economics Letters, 3, pp.391-394.
- PEEL, D. & THOMAS, D. (1988). Outcome uncertainty and the demand for
football: an analysis of match attendances in the English football league. Scottish
Journal of PoliticalEconomy, 35, pp.242-249.
- PRICE, D. & SEN, K. (2003). The demand for game attendance in college football:
an analysis of the 1997 division 1-A season. Managerial and Decision
Economics, 24, pp.35-46.
- Rothmans Football Year Book. Editions 21-31, Headline Book Publishing, London.
ROTTENBERG, S. (1956). The baseball players^ labour market. Journal of
PoliticalEconomy, 64, pp.243-258.
- SANDY, R., SLONE, PJ. & ROSENTRAUB, M.S. (2004). The economics of
sports: an internationalperspective. Basingstoke, Palgrave.
- SAUER, R.D., BRAJER, V., FERRIS, S.P., & MARR, M.V. (1988). Hold your
bets: another look at the effıciency of the gambling market for national league
games. Journal of PoliticalEconomy, 96, pp.206-213.
- SCHMIDT, M. & BERRI, D. (2001). Competitive balance and attendance: the case
of majör league baseball. Journal of Sports Economics, 2, pp.145-167.
- SLONE, PJ. (1971). The economics of professional football: the football club as
utility maximiser. Scottish Journal of PoliticalEconomy, 18, pp.121-146.
- SZYMANSKI, S. (2003). The assessment: the economics of sport. OxfordReview of
Economic Policy,19,VVA67-477.
- . (2001a). Economics of sport: introduction. The Economic
Journal, lll,VV.l-3.
- . (2001b). Income inequality, competitive balance and the
attractiveness of team sports: some evidence and natural experiment from
English soccer. The Economic Journal, 111, pp. 69-84.
- WHITNEY, J. (1988). Winning games versus winning championships: economics
of fan interest and team performance. Economic Inguiry, 26, 703-724.
- WISEMAN, N.C. (1977). The economics of football. Lloyds BankReview, No: 123,
pp.29-43.
- ZIMBALIST, A. (ed.) (2001). The economics of sport. London, Edward Elgar.