Mehmet Zeki AK, Nurullah ALTINTAŞ, Ahmet Salih ŞİMŞEK

TÜRKİYE’DE FİNANSAL GELİŞME VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİNİN NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Türkiye ekonomisi için büyüme ve finansal gelişme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin yönünü tespit etmeyi amaçlayan bu çalışmada 1989-2011 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak Toda-Yamamoto testi uygulanmıştır. Ayrıca, temel bileşenler analizi yöntemi ile Türkiye ekonomisinin özgün koşullarını yansıtan ve finansal gelişmişlik düzeyini en kapsamlı biçiminde ölçmeyi mümkün kılacak bir finansal gelişme endeksi oluşturulmuştur. Ampirik bulgular, ‘89 sonrası dönemde ağırlıklı olarak ‘büyüme’den ‘finansal gelişme’ye doğru işleyen tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi söz konusu olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bir başka ifadeyle finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasında ‘talep takipli’ bir nedensellik ilişkisi söz konusudur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ekonomik Büyüme, Finansal Gelişme, Finansal Gelişme Endeksi, Toda-Yamamoto Yaklaşımı, Temel Bileşenler Analizi

THE CAUSALITY ANALYSIS OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY

In this study Toda-Yamamoto test was applied by using annual data between 1989-2011 to determine the direction of causality relationship between growth and financial development for the Turkish economy. Also, by principal components analysis a financial development index which reflects original conditions of Turkish economy and makes it possible to measure financial development level widely was constituted. Empirical evidence has shown that there is a unidirectional causal relationship from economic growth to financial development in the period after 1989. In other words, there is a causal relationship called 'demand following' between financial development and economic growth

Keywords:

Economic Growth, Financial Development, Financial Development Index, Toda-Yamamoto Approach, Principal Component Analysis,

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