VEYSEL YILMAZ, Murat ERİŞOĞLU, H. Eray ÇELİK

Probabilistic Prediction of the Next Earthquake in the Nafz (North Anatolian Fault Zone), Turkey

Depremler rassal olaylar olduğu için bu alanda istatistiksel metotların kullanımı yaygındır. İstatistiksel metotlar risk problemlerinin çözümlenmesinde kullanılır. Sismik risk ve deprem meydana gelme olasılıkları istatistiksel olasılık dağılımdan yardımıyla tahmin edilebilir. Bu çalışmada Weibull, Log-normal, Log-lojistik, Üstel ve Gamma dağılımları kullanılarak deprem verisini en iyi şekilde temsil edecek olasılık dağılımı bulunmaya çalışılmıştır. Bu amaçla etkin olasılık dağılımının belirlenmesinde Kolmogorov-Smirnov test istatistiği kullanılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda Weibull dağılımının diğer olasılık dağılımlarına gore deprem verisini en iyi şekilde temsil ettiği görülmüştür.

Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonunda (Nafz) Gelecek Depremlerin Olasılıksal Tahmini

Statistical methods are useful for characterizing seismic hazard because earthquakes are, for all practical purposes, random phenomena. They provide additional insights to the seismic hazard or risk problem. Seismic risk and earthquake occurrence probabilities can be estimated by using probability distributions. In this study Weibull, Log-normal, Log-logistic, Exponential and Gamma distributions have been examined for which one has the best fit for the given data. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test statistics was used at the research of the distribution best represents earthquake data. At the end of the test, it has been detected that Weibull distribution is more appropriate than other distributions.

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