Veysel YILMAZ, Murat ERİŞOĞLU, H. Eray ÇELİK

KUZEY ANADOLU FAY ZONUNDA NAFZ GELECEK DEPREMLERİN OLASILIKSAL TAHMİNİ

Depremler rassal olaylar olduğu için bu alanda istatistiksel metotların kullanımı yaygındır. istatistiksel metotlar risk problemlerinin çözümlenmesinde kullanılır. Sismik risk ve deprem meydana gelme olasılıkları istatistiksel olasılık dağılımıları yardımıyla tahmin edilebilir. Bu çalışmada Weibull, Log-normal, Log-lojistik, Üstel ve Gamma dağılımları kullanılarak deprem verisini en iyi şekilde temsil edecek olasılık dağılımı bulunmaya çalışılmıtır. Bu amaçla etkin olasılık daılımının belirlenmesinde Kolmogorov-Smirnov test istatistiği kullanılmıştır. Çalıma sonucunda Weibull daılımının dier olasılık dağılımlarına gore deprem verisini en iyi ekilde temsil ettiği görülmüştür

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Deprem tahmini, Olasılık Da ılımları, Kolmogorov- Simirnov Testi

PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION OF THE NEXT EARTHQUAKE IN THE NAFZ NORTH ANATOLIAN FAULT ZONE , TURKEY

Statistical methods are useful for characterizing seismic hazard because earthquakes are, for all practical purposes, random phenomena. They provide additional insights to the seismic hazard or risk problem. Seismic risk and earthquake occurrence probabilities can be estimated by using probability distributions. In this study Weibull, Log-normal, Log-logistic, Exponential and Gamma distributions have been examined for which one has the best fit for the given data. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test statistics was used at the research of the distribution best represents earthquake data. At the end of the test, it has been detected that Weibull distribution is more appropriate than other distributions.

Keywords:

Earthquake Prediction, Probability Distributions, Kolmogorov - Smirnov Test,

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