Kuraklık Riskinin Bulanık Mantık Yardımıyla Türkiye Genelinde Değerlendirilmesi

Bu çalışmada meteorolojik ve sosyo-ekonomik veriler kullanılarak elde edilen kuraklık afet ve hassasiyetlik göstergeleri yardımıyla Türkiye genelinde kuraklık riski bulanık mantık çıkarımı (BMÇ) yaklaşımıyla bütüncül olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Kuraklık afetinin tam olarak anlaşılmasında kuraklık risk ve hassasiyetinin önemi bilinse de Türkiye için bütüncül ve yeterli miktarda bilimsel çalışmanın varlığından bahsetmek zordur. Kuraklık Afet Göstergesi (KAG) kuraklığın görülme ihtimaline dayanan standart yağış göstergesi (SYG) (Standardized Precipitation Index-SPI) kullanılarak kuraklık kavramının daha iyi anlaşılmasını kolaylaştırmak için hesaplanmıştır. Bunun yanında, Kuraklık Hassasiyet Göstergesi (KHG) kuraklığın sonuçlarının bağlı olduğu güncel dört adet sosyo-ekonomik veri kullanılarak hesaplanmıştır. BMÇ yardımıyla kuraklık afet ve hassasiyet göstergelerinin, kuraklık riskinin belirlenmesindeki öneminin vurgulanması bu çalışmanın temel hedefidir. Çalışma sonucunda elde edilen bulgulara göre Türkiye genelinde 81 il arasında 5 ilin düşük kuraklık riski taşıdığı, 61 ilin orta kuraklık riskine sahip olduğu, 14 ilde yüksek kuraklık riskinin bulunduğu ve son olarak sadece Konya’da çok yüksek kuraklık riski ortaya çıktığı tespit edilmiştir.

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