Yolsuzluk ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Arap Baharı Neleri Değiştirdi?

Yolsuzluk, Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika'da (MENA) sonu gelmez bir olgudur. 2011 yılında Tunus'ta başlayan Arap olaylarının temel nedenlerinden biri olarak kabul edilmektedir. Yıkıcı etkileri göz önünde bulundurularak bu makale, Arap ayaklanmaları sonrasındaki yolsuzluğun makro düzeydeki etkilerine odaklanmaktadır. Özellikle, 18 MENA ülkesinde 1996-2020 yılları arasında yolsuzluğun ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini araştırıyor. Makalede, Hausman testinin sonuçları verilen ülke sabit etkili regresyonlara sahip panel tahmincileri kullanılmaktadır. Panel tahmin edicileri, zamana bağlı gözlemlenmemiş heterojenliği kontrol etmeye ve hem zamana hem de ülkeye özgü farklılıkları yakalamaya yardımcı olmaktadır. Sonuçlar, Arap Baharı sonrasında yolsuzluğun ekonomik büyümeyi düşürdüğünü göstermektedir. Dünya Yönetişim Göstergelerinin (WGI) yolsuzluğun kontrolü puanındaki bir birimlik artış, modele bağlı olarak ekonomik büyümeyi yüzde 1,64-2,98 puan arasında azaltmaktadır. Sonuçlar, Uluslararası Ülke Riski Rehberi (ICRG), Demokrasi Çeşitleri (V-Dem) ve Yolsuzluk Algılama Endeksi (CPI) gibi alternatif yolsuzluk endeksleri ile de sağlamdır. Buna ek olarak, Chow testi, 2011 yılının MENA bölgesinin tarihinde yapısal bir kırılma olduğunu doğrulamaktadır. Sonuçlar, MENA ülkelerinde yolsuzluğun olumsuz etkilerini hafifletmek için belirli politikaların uygulanması gerektiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Yolsuzluk, Arap Baharı, Ekonomik Büyüme, Sabit Etkiler, Chow Testi

Corruption and Economic Growth Nexus: What has the Arab Spring Changed?

Corruption is an everlasting phenomenon in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). It is considered one of the fundamental reasons for the Arab incidents that started in Tunisia in 2011. Considering its devastating effects, this paper concentrates on the impacts of corruption at the macro level following the Arab uprisings. Notably, it investigates the impact of corruption on economic growth between 1996-2020 in 18 MENA countries. The paper utilizes panel estimators with country-fixed effect regressions given the results of the Hausman test. Panel estimators help control time-variant unobserved heterogeneity and capture both time and country-specific differences. The results indicate that after the Arab Spring, corruption lowers economic growth. One unit increase in control of corruption score of World Governance Indicators (WGI) decreases economic growth between 1.64-2.98 percentage points depending on the model. The results are robust with alternative corruption indexes such as the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG), Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem), and the Corruption Perception Index (CPI). Furthermore, the Chow test confirms that 2011 constitutes a structural break in the history of the MENA region. The outcomes indicate that specific policies need to be implemented to alleviate the adverse impacts of corruption in MENA countries.

Keywords:

Corruption, Arab Spring, Economic Growth, Fixed Effects, Chow Test,

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