Determinants of Success in International Mediation: Evidence From Cyprus and Northern Ireland Mediation Cases

This article systematically analyzes mediation attempts of George Mitchell in Northern Ireland and Kofi Annan in Cyprus, a success and a failure of international mediation, respectively. Based on data collected through interviews in Northern Ireland and Cyprus as well as secondary resources, this comparative case study tests the explanatory power of the Contingency Model of Mediation. The analysis shows that the variables in the model are insufficient in explaining the outcome for these two cases. Additional context variables such as international pressure, informal peace initiatives, and language and additional process variables such as nature of the peace talks and role of the leaders have stronger explanatory power in determining the outcome.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Contingency model mediation, Cyprus, international mediation, Northern Ireland

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