Yüksek faiz, sabit ve esnek kur sisteminde savunma mekanizması olarak kullanılabilir mi?

Döviz kuru ve faiz arasındaki ilişkiler iktisat literatürünün en tartışmalı konularından biridir. Sermaye çıkışı sonucu kurda yaşanan istikrarsızlığı gidermek için faizlerin arttırılmasını savunan geleneksel görüşle, tam aksine, finansal kırılganlıkların yüksek olduğu bir ekonomide sermaye çıkışını faizleri yükselterek durdurmanın mümkün olmadığını, faizle kur arasındaki ilişkinin doğru yönlü olduğunu iddia eden revizyonist görüş bu makalenin inceleme konusunu oluşturmaktadır. Her iki görüş nominal kurları reel kurlarla bağlantılı kullanarak hipotezlerini ortaya koymakta ve değişik ülkelerden elde edilen ampirik gözlemleri ile desteklemektedir. Makale de Türkiye Kasım 2000 ve Şubat 2001 krizleri ile 2006 Mayıs ayında kurlarda yaşanan istikrarsızlığı para politikasıyla savunmanın yarattığı sonuç geleneksel ve revizyonist görüş açısından değerlendirilmektedir. Sonuç olarak Türkiye açısından geleneksel ve revizyonist görüş tanımladıkları ekonomik koşullar geçerli olduğu zaman para politikası etkin olabilmektedir.

Can high interest rate be used as a defence mechanism on fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes?

The relationship between exchange rate and interest rate is one of the most contreversial issues in economics literature. Traditional approach claims increasing interest rate is a solution to exchange rate turbulances caused by capital outflows. Contrary to traditional approach revisionist approach, claims it is impossible to stop capital outflows by increasing the interest rates in highly fragile economies due to positive relationship between exchange rate and interest rate. Both approaches defend their hypothesis by empirical observations made for different countries. This article analyses November 2000, February 2001 crises and May 2006 exchange rate turbulance experienced in Turkey by employing both traditional and revisionist approaches. As a conclusion, both traditional and revisionist approaches are effective monetary policies for Turkey as long as the economic conditions defined by each approach are valid.

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