Türkiye'nin Üyeliğinin Avrupa Birliği Bütçesine Muhtemel Etkisi

3 Ekim 2005 tarihinde Avrupa Birliği (AB), Türkiye ile üyelik müzakerelerini başlatmıştır. 2014 yılından önce gerçekleşmesi beklenmemekle birlikte Türkiye’nin AB üyeliği, hem Avrupa için hem de Türkiye için önemli bir gelişmedir. Bu makalede, Türkiye’nin üyeliğinin AB bütçesine muhtemel etkisi analiz edilmiştir. Coğrafi büyüklüğü, ekonomik gelişmişlik seviyesi ve tarıma bağımlılığı veri iken, Türkiye’nin AB’ye katılımının AB bütçesi üzerine önemli bir etkisi olacaktır. Mevcut kurallar ve politikalar altında, Türkiye AB bütçesinden en fazla faydalanan ülke olacaktır. Maliyet tahminleri, yılda 7 ve 18 milyar Euro arasında farklı rakamlar vermektedir. Avrupa Komisyonu’nun tahminlerine göre, sadece Avrupa Birliği’nin Ortak Tarım Politikası (CAP) altında net transfer (2004 fiyatları ile), 2025 yılında 8.2 milyar Euro olabilecektir. Gelecekte hem AB politikalarının hem de Türkiye’deki şartların değişeceği düşünüldüğünde, Türkiye’nin AB bütçesine maliyetini tahmin etmek kolay değildir.

The Likely Budget Effect of Turkish Membership to European Union

The Likely Budget Effect of Turkish Membership to European Union European Union (EU) initiated the accession negotiations with Turkey on 3rd of October 2005. Turkey’s accession which is not expected before 2014 would be a challange for both the EU and Turkey. This paper analyses the likely budget effect of Turkish membership to the European Union. Given its size, level of economic development and dependence on agriculture, Turkey’s accession would have an important effect on the EU budget. Turkey may become the largest recipient of transfers from the EU budget under present rules and policies. The net costs estimated in various studies range from 7 billion Euro to 18 billion Euro a year. According to The Commisison estimates, total Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) transfers to Turkey would be 8.2 billion Euro (in terms of 2004 prices) by 2025. It is diffucult to predict how much Turkey would cost the EU budget since both EU policies and conditons in Turkey would change.

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