SAVUNMA HARCAMALARI EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: OECD ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME

Savunma harcamaları zorunluluktan doğmakta, ülkelerin coğrafi konumları ile politik bakış açılarına göre miktar ve bileşimi farklılık göstermektedir. Bu özelliklerinin yanında, savunma harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi, iktisat ve maliye literatüründe fazlasıyla araştırılan bir konu olmuştur. Bu çalışmada, öncelikle savunma harcamalarının savunma sanayii üzerinden doğurabileceği ekonomik sonuçlar ve ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etki kanalları tartışılmıştır. Bilindiği üzere siyasi iktidarlar, ulusal bağımsız bir savunma sanayii kurulması hedefiyle savunma sanayii teşviklerine başvurabilmektedirler. Bu teşviklerin arkasında savunma sanayiinde dışa bağımlılığı azaltmanın yanında, özel sektörü desteklemek ile ekonomik büyümenin uyarılması da yatmaktadır. Çalışmada 35 OECD ülkesinin 2005-2019 yılları arasındaki verisi kullanılarak, savunma harcamalarının GSYH ile olan nedensellik ilişkisi üzerinden, ekonomik büyümeye olan etkisi panel veri nedensellik analizi yardımıyla incelenmiştir. Analiz sonuçları, uzun dönemde savunma harcamalarının ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz etkileyebileceğini göstermiştir. Bununla birlikte sonuçların genel bir durumu yansıttığı, ülkelerin gelişmişlik düzeyleri, silah ithalat ve ihracat durumları ile savunma sanayiinin diğer sektörlerle bağlantılarının büyüme üzerinde etkili olabileceği düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Savunma Harcamaları, Ekonomik Büyüme, Panel Veri Nedensellik Analizi

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEFENSE EXPENDITURES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A STUDY ON OECD COUNTRIES

Defense spending is born out of necessity. The amount and composition of defense expenditures differ according to the geographical locations and political perspectives of the countries. However, the effect of defense expenditures on growth has been a subject that has been extensively researched. In this study, first of all, the effects of defense expenditures on the defense industry and possible growth channels are discussed. With the aim of establishing a national independent defense industry, states can give incentives to these areas. Behind these incentives lies the reduction of military economic dependence, as well as supporting the private sector and stimulating economic growth.. In the study, using the data of 35 OECD countries between 2005 and 2019, the effect of defense expenditures on economic growth through the causality relationship with GDP was examined with the help of panel data causality analysis. The results of the analysis showed that defense expenditures will adversely affect economic growth in the long run. However, it should be noted that the results reflect a general situation. It is thought that the differences in the development levels of the countries, arms imports and the connections of the defense industry with other sectors may be effective on growth.

Keywords:

Defense Expenditures, Economic Growth, Panel Data Causality Analysis,

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