Hisse senedi beta katsayılarının tahmini ve düzeltilmesi : İstanbul menkul kıymetler borsası üzerine bir uygulama
Bu çalışmanın amacı, Blume ve Vasicek tekniklerine göre düzeltilmiş beta değerlerinin düzeltilmemiş beta değerleri ile karşılaştırılmasıdır. Bu çerçevede, İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası (İMKB) şirketlerine ait hisse senetlerinin beta katsayıları, Temmuz 1996 - Haziran 2008 dönemi için hesaplanmış ve Blume ile Vasicek yöntemlerine göre düzeltmeler yapılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, Blume ve Vasicek yöntemlerine göre düzeltilen beta değerlerinin, düzeltilmemiş beta değerlerinden farklı olduklarını ortaya koymuştur.
Estimation and adjustment of common stock beta coefficients : An empirical analysis in İstanbul stock exchange
Aim of this study is to compare unadjusted beta coefficients with beta coefficients adjusted according to Blume and Vasicek methods. In this context, beta coefficients of Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) companies’ common stocks are computed for July 1996 - June 2008 period and adjusted according to Blume and Vasicek methods. Empirical findings suggest that beta coefficients adjusted according to Blume and Vasicek methods are different from unadjusted beta coefficients.
___
- Baesel, B.J. (1974), “On the Assesment of Risk: Some Further Considerations”, Journal of Finance, Cilt: 29, No:5, ss.1491-1494.
- Bera, A. K. ve Kanan, S. (1986), “An Adjustment Procedure for Predicting Systematic Risk”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Cilt:1, No.4, ss.317-332.
- Beyazıt, M. F. (2005), “İMKB Betaları, Korelasyon Tahmini ve Değişkenlik”, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, Cilt:6, No:1, ss.28-34.
- Blume, M. E. (1971), “On the Assessment of Risk”, Journal of Finance, Cilt:26, No:1, ss.1-10.
- Blume, M. E. (1975), “Betas and their Regression Tendencies”, Journal of Finance, Cilt:30, No:3, ss.785-795.
- Bos, T. ve Newbold, P. (1984); “An Emprical Investigation of the Possibility of Stochastic Systematic Risk in the Market Model”, Journal of Business, Cilt:57, ss.35-41
- Ceylan, A. ve Korkmaz, T. (2000); “Sermaye Piyasası ve Menkul Değer Analizi” (2.Basım), Bursa: Ekin Kitapevi.
- Couto, G. ve Duque, J. (2003), “An Empirical Test on the Forecast Ability of the Bayesian and Blume Techniques for Infrequently Traded Stocks”, Review of Financial Markets, Cilt:2, ss.49-72.
- Diacogiannis, G. P. (1989) “Forecasting Stock Betas: Evidence for the London Stock Exchange”, The University of Piraeus Journal of Economics, Business, Statistics and Operations Research, Cilt:39, No:1-4, ss.92-108.
- Diacogiannis, G. ve Marki, P. (2008), “Estimating Betas in Thinner Markets: The Case of the Athens Stock Exchange”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, No: 13, ss.108-122.
- Emanuel, D. M. (1980), “The Market Model in New Zeland”, Accounting and Finance, Cilt:20, No.2, ss.590-601.
- Fabozzi, F. J. ve Francis, J. C. (1978), “Beta as a Random Coefficient”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cilt:13, No:1, ss.981-997.
- Fama, E. F. ve French, K. R. (1992); “The Cross-Section of Expected Returns”, Journal of Finance, Cilt:47, No:2, ss.427-465.
- Gray, S, Hall, J., Klease, D. ve McCrystal, A. (2009); “Bias, Stability and Predictive Ability in the Measurement of Systematic Risk”, Accounting Research Journal, basılacak.
- Harris, R. J. (2001), A Primer for Multivariate Statistics (Third Edition), USA: Lawrance Erlbaum Associates, Publishers.
- Kalfa, N. (2007); “Betanın Tahminleme Modellerinin İncelenmesi ve Açıklayıcılık Düzeyleri Üzerine İMKB’de Karşılaştırmalı Bir Araştırma”, Doktora Tezi, İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
- Klemkosky, R. C. ve Martin, J. D. (1975), “The Adjustment of Beta Forecasts”, Journal of Finance, Cilt:30, No:4, ss.1123-1128.
- Kok, K. L. (1997), “Beta Forecasts of Malaysian Securities: A Sectoral Analysis”, Malaysian Management Review, Cilt:32, No:2,
- http://mgv.mim.edu.my/MMR/9706/ 970607.Htm, Erişim Tarihi: 28.01.2009.
- Lally, M. (1998), “An Examination of Blume and Vasicek Betas”, Financial Review, Cilt:33, ss.183-198.
- Lintner, J. (1965), “Security Prices, Risk and Maximal Gains from Diversification”, Journal of Finance, Cilt:20, No:4. ss.587-615.
- Mossin, J. (1966), “Equilibrium in Capital Asset Markets”, Econometrica, Cilt:34, No:4, ss.768-783.
- Odabaşı, A. (2002), “An Investigation of Beta Instability in the Istanbul Stock Exchange”, Istanbul Stock Exchange Review,, Cilt:6, No:24, ss.15-32.
- Sharpe, W. F. (1964), “Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk”, Journal of Finance, Cilt:19, No:3, ss.425-442.
- Strong, N. ve Xinzhong, G. Xu (1997); “Explaining the Cross-Section of UK Expected Stock Returns”, British Accounting Review, No:29, ss.1-23
- Vasicek, O. A. (1973), “A Note on Using Cross-Sectional Information in Bayesian Estimation of Security Betas”, Journal of Finance, Cilt:28, No:5, ss.1233-1239.