Arş. Gör. Ali ACARAVCI, Arş. Gör. Cuma BOZKURT

Enflasyon Hedeflemesinde Beklentilerin Önemi: Türkiye Ekonomisi için Ampirik Bir Çalışma

Bu çalışma enflasyon hedefleme politikalarını araştırmakta; enflasyon ile para arzı ve döviz kuru gibi nominal büyüklükler arasındaki istikrarlı bir ilişkinin varlığını Türkiye ekonomisi için zaman serisi yöntemleri ile incelemektedir Çalışmanın temel amacı nominal büyüklüklerin enflasyon üzerindeki göreli etkilerini ortaya koymak ve enflasyondaki değişimi ayrıştırmaktır Çalışmadan elde edilen temel sonuca göre nominal büyüklüklerdeki artışlar enflasyon oranını arttırmaktadır Ancak fiyat istikrarsızlığının veya yüksek enflasyonun devam etmesindeki en büyük etki enflasyonun kendisinden kaynaklanmaktadır Anahtar Kelimeler: Beklentiler Fiyat İstikrarı Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Birim Kök Testleri Eşbütünleşme Testi THE IMPORTANCE OF EXPECTATIONS ON INFLATION TARGETTING: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION FOR TURKISH ECONOMY

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Beklentiler, Fiyat İstikrarı, Enflasyon Hedeflemesi, Birim Kök

Enflasyon Hedeflemesinde Beklentilerin Önemi: Türkiye Ekonomisi için Ampirik Bir Çalışma

This study has explored the inflation targeting policies and investigated the existence of a stable relationship between inflation and nominal aggregates such as money supply and exchange rates for Turkish Economy by using time series methods The main purpose of this study is to expose the relative effects of nominal aggregates on inflation and to decompose the variation of inflation The main result from this study is that increases in nominal aggregates have increased the inflation rates But the largest effect for continuities in price instabilities or high inflation rates have aroused from inflation itself Keywords: Expectations Price Stability Inflation Targeting Unit Root Tests Cointegration Test

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