Orta Gelir Tuzağı Bağlamında İhracatta Ürün Çeşitliliği ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi

Öz Orta gelir tuzağı, ülkelerin uzun bir zaman diliminde aynı gelir grubunda kalıp uluslararası rekabet düzeyini yitirmiş olması şeklinde ifade edilen bir kavramdır. Kanchoochat ve Intarakumnerd (2014) çalışmasında, orta gelir tuzağından çıkış amacıyla ifade edilen önemli stratejilerden biri, ülkelerin ihracat kompozisyonlarında çeşitliliğe yönelmeleri gerektiği şeklindedir. İhracat kompozisyonun çeşitlendirilmesinin, orta gelir tuzağı riskine etkisinin test edilmesi amacıyla mevcut çalışmada, seçilmiş ülkeler, 1995-2015 dönemi için Robertson ve Ye (2013)’nin orta gelir tuzağı önerisine göre, orta gelir tuzağında olan ve orta gelir tuzağından kaçan ülkeler olmak üzere ikiye ayrılmaktadır. Yapılan analizde, ihracat kompozisyonunun çeşitliliğini gösteren Herfindahl-Hirschman Endeksi ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki panel veri analiz yöntemleri ile test edilmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, orta gelir tuzağında olan ülkelerin ekonomik büyümelerinin ihracatta ürün çeşitliliğinden pozitif, orta gelir tuzağından kaçan ülkelerin ise negatif yönde etkilendiği yönündedir. Yapılan analizin bulguları, orta gelirli ülkelerin ihracatta ürün çeşitliliğine, orta gelir tuzağından kaçan ülkelerin ise ihracatta uzmanlaşmaya yönelmeleri gerektiğini göstermektedir. Bu çerçevede, çalışmanın sonuç bölümünde, orta gelir tuzağında olan ülkeler için yüksek gelirli ülkeler sınıfına yükselme aşamasına kadar ihracatta ürün çeşitliliğinin desteklenmesine yönelik çeşitli politik önerilerde bulunulmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

İhracat Çeşitliliği, Orta Gelir Tuzağı, Orta Gelir Tuzağındaki Ülkeler

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