MINT ülkelerinde savunma harcamaları ve ekonomikbüyüme ilişkisi: Panel nedensellik analizi

Tüm ülkeler iç ve dış güvenliğini temin etmek için savunma harcaması yapmak zorundadır. Buharcamalar kamu harcaması niteliğinde olup çıktı üzerindeki etkisi ekonomi literatüründe üzerindeoldukça fazla durulan bir konudur. Çünkü bu harcamalar tam anlamıyla toplumdaki bireylerin refahdüzeylerini artırmak amacıyla yapılan harcamalar olmamakla beraber vergi gelirleri ile finanseedilmektedirler. Bu çalışmada 1974 – 2019 yılları arasında MINT ülkeleri için (Meksika, Endonezya,Nijerya ve Türkiye) savunma harcamaları ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse (2011)heterojen panel nedensellik analizi ile test edilmiştir. Test sonuçlarına göre Meksika’da büyüme ilesavunma harcamaları arasında çift yönlü nedensellik vardır. Türkiye’de ise savunmaharcamalarından büyümeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanmıştır. Panelin geneli içinise savunma harcamalarından büyümeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik vardır. MINT ülkelerindesavunma harcamalarının ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif yönde etkilediği hipotezinin geçerli olduğusöylenebilir. Endonezya ve Nijerya’da ise yansızlık hipotezi geçerlidir.

The relationship between defence expenditures and economic growth in MINT countries: A panel causality analysis

All countries have to spend on defence to ensure their internal and external security. Theseexpenditures are like public expenditures, and their effect on output is a subject that is highlyemphasized in the economic literature. Because these expenditures are not precisely the expendituresmade to increase the welfare of the individuals in the society, but tax revenues finance them. Thisstudy tested the relationship between defence expenditures and economic growth for MINT countries(Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) between 1974 and 2019 by Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse (2011)heterogeneous panel causality analysis. According to the test results, there is bidirectional causalitybetween growth and defence expenditures in Mexico. In Turkey, on the other hand, a one-waycausality relationship was found from defence expenditures to growth. For the panel in general, thereis a unidirectional causality running from defence expenditures to growth. Therefore, It can be saidthat the hypothesis that defence expenditures positively affect economic growth in MINT countries isvalid. In Indonesia and Nigeria, the neutrality hypothesis is valid.

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