Fatih AYHAN, Feyza BALAN, Yüksel Akay UNVAN

KIRILGAN BEŞLİ ÜLKELERE YÖNELİK DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLARI ETKİLEYEN DEĞİŞKENLERİN BELİRLENMESİNE İLİŞKİN BİR PANEL ANALİZ

1990'ların ortasından itibaren küreselleşmenin etkileri artmıştır. Küreselleşmenin etkisiyle birlikte artan ekonomilere yönelik uluslararası ticaret yabancı yatırımları artırmıştır. İktisatçılar genellikle doğrudan yabancı yatırımların gelişmekte olan ülkelerin ekonomilerini büyüterek, verimliliklerini ve ihracat kapasitelerini artırarak uluslararası rekabetle başa çıkabilmelerine katkıda bulunduğunu vurgulamaktadır. Bu çalışma, 1994-2017 yılları için panel very analizi yardımıyla Kırılgan Beşli ülkelerinde (Türkiye, Brezilya, Hindistan, Endonezya ve Güney Afrika) doğrudan yabancı yatırımları (DYY) etkileyen faktörleri araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Panel En Küçük Kareler yönteminden elde edilen sonuçlar kurumsal kalitenin yaklaşık değişkeni olan politik özgürlüklerin, reel döviz kurunun ve üretken bilgi düzeyi ve kapasitelerinin doğrudan yabancı yatırımları çeken istatistiksel olarak anlamlı belirleyenleri olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu nedenle, DYY’nin girişini artırmayı amaçlayan gelişmekte olan ülkelerin politik koşullarını ve döviz kurlarının istikrarlılığını güçlendirmeleri gerekmektedir. İlaveten daha fazla DYY’yi ülkelerine çekebilmek için bu ülkelerin daha karmaşık ürünlerin ihracat paylarını arttırmaları da son derece önemlidir.

A PANEL ANALYSIS FOR DETERMINING THE VARIABLES AFFECT FDI INFLOWS TOWARDS FRAGILE FIVE COUNTRIES

Globalization is increasing since the mid-1990s. Along with the globalization, increased internationaltrade caused the foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows for economies. Economists often emphasize that FDIcontributes developing countries to confront the international competition by boosting their economy, increasingproductivity and export capacity. This paper aims to investigate the factors that affect the FDI flows towards theFragile Five countries (Turkey, Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa) for 1994-2017 through panel data analysis.The results from the panel ordinary least square indicate that political freedom as a proxy variable of institutionalquality, real exchange rate, and the degree of productive knowledge and capability of the Fragile Five countriesare statistically significant determinants of FDI attraction. Thus, developing countries, aiming to increase FDIinflows have to strengthen their political conditions and stabilization of their exchange rates. As well as, it isimportant to increase these countries’ export shares of the more complex product in order to be able to attractmore FDI.

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