Interdependency of Business Cycle between Turkey and the Selected Central Asian Countries

The dynamic interdependency among seven countriesor economies (Turkey, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Russia,China, Iran, and EU) is examined through the use of avector error correction model, directed acyclic graphs(DAGs) and monthly data of the industrial productionindex. Overall, the results show that the industrialproduction of Russia affects the EU and the industrialproduction of the EU affects Turkey in a contemporaneoustime horizon, which implies that two CentralAsian countries, such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan,have no linkage with either Russia or Turkey in termsof their industrial production for a contemporaneoustime horizon. However, all industrial productions ofthe seven economies are tied together in the long runin one cointegration relationship.

Türkiye ve Orta Asya Ülkelerinin Endüstriyel İş Döngüsündeki Karşılıklı Bağımlılığı

Yedi ülke ya da ekonomi (Türkiye, Kazakistan, Azerbaycan, Rusya, Çin, İran ve AB) arasındaki dinamik Karşılıklı bağımlılık vektör hata düzeltme modeli ve endüstriyel üretim indeksi aylık verileri kullanılarak ölçülmüştür. Genel olarak, sonuçlar eş zaman olarak dilimi içinde Rusya’nın endüstriyel üretiminin AB’yi, AB’nin endüstriyel üretiminin ise Türkiye’yi etkilediğini göstermektedir. Bu durum örneğin Azerbaycan ve Kazakistan gibi iki Orta Asya ülkesinin endüstriyel üretim açısından Rusya ya da Türkiye’yle bağlantısı olmadığı anlamına gelmektedir. Buna rağmen, yedi ekonominin tüm endüstriyel üretimi uzun vadede tek bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisiyle birbirine bağlıdır.

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