Muhsin KAR, Şaban NAZLIOĞLU, Hüseyin AĞIR

Türkiye'de ticari açıklık, finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme: lineer ve lineer olmayan nedensellik analizeri

Bu makale, ticari açıklık, finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasında nedenselliğin yönünü Türkiye için ampirik olarak test etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Ocak 1989-Kasım 2007 dönemi aylık verileri kullanarak yapılan lineer ve lineer olmayan nedensellik yaklaşımları, i ekonomik büyüme ve ticari açıklık arasında tek yönlü nedensellik olduğunu, ii ekonomik büyümenin finansal gelişmeye neden olduğunu ve iii finansal gelişmenin ticari açıklığa yol açtığını göstermektedir. Lineer ve lineer olmayan yaklaşımlar finansal gelişme, ticari açıklık ve ekonomik büyüme arasında güçlü nedensellik bağlantılarını doğrulamaktadır. Bu sonuçlar, 1989 yılından sonra sermaye hesabında serbestleşme tecrübe eden Türkiye'de, ekonomik büyümenin kısmen dış finansman üzerinden ticari serbestleşmeye bağlı olduğunu ima etmektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ticari Açıklık, Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme, Nedensellik Testi

Trade Openness, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Turkey: Linear and Nonlinear Causality Analysis

This paper aims at empirically investigating the direction of causality among trade liberalization, financial development, and economic growth in Turkey. By employing monthly data for the period January, 1989- November, 2007, both linear and nonlinear causality approaches indicate that i there is bi-directional causality between economic growth and trade openness, ii economic growth causes financial development, and iii financial development leads to trade liberalization. Thereby, linear and nonlinear approaches confirm strong causal linkages among financial development, trade openness, and economic growth in Turkey. These results partially imply that economic growth depends upon trade liberalization through external finance in Turkey which has been experiencing capital account liberalization since 1989

Keywords:

Trade Openness Financial Development, Economic Growth, Causality, Turkey,

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