Parasal aktarım mekanizması: Türkiyede banka kredi kanalı

Bu makalede Türkiyede banka kredi kanalının işlerliği ampirik olarak analiz edilmektedir. 1990:1-2012:4 dönemi verilerinin kullanıldığı bu araştırmada ilk olarak parasal şoklar elde edilmekte, ardından bu şokların kalıntıları ile banka kredileri ve sanayi üretim endeksi değişkenlerini içeren VAR analizi yapılmaktadır. Banka kredilerinin, faiz kaynaklı şoklara daha hızlı tepki gösterdiği, sanayi üretiminin banka kredilerine ve parasal şoklara tepkisinin belirli bir gecikme ile ortaya çıktığı bulgusuna ulaşılmaktadır. Ayrıca, para politikası şoklarından banka kredilerine tek yönlü, banka kredileri ile sanayi üretimi arasında iki yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi varlığı tespit edilmektedir. Bu sonuçlar Türkiyede para politikası uygulamalarının kredilerin elde edilebilirliğini etkilediğini ve banka kredi kanalının işlediğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

bankalar, kredi, VAR analizi, faiz, para politikası, para şoku

Monetary transmission mechanism: The bank lending channel in Turkey

This paper analyzes empirically the validity of the bank lending channel in Turkey. Using data for the period 1990:1-2012:4, firstly the monetary shocks are obtained and then through VAR methodology relationships between remains of these shocks, bank lending and industrial production index are analyzed. The study finds out that bank lending more quickly reaction to shocks arising from the interest rate, the response of industrial production to bank lending and monetary shocks to be delayed. Additionally, there is a unilateral relationship from monetary policy shocks to bank loans, a two-way relationship between bank lending and industrial production. These results indicate that monetary policy affects the availability of bank credit in Turkey and bank lending channel works.

Keywords:

banks, credit, VAR analysis, interests, monetary policy, monetary shock,

___

Akinboade, O. A. ve Makina, D. (2010) Econometric Analysis of Bank Lending and Business Cycles in South Africa, Applied Economics, 42(29), 3803-3811
Alper, K., Hülagu, T. ve Keleş, G. (2012) An Empirical Study on Liquidity and Bank Lending, Central Bank of the Repuclic of Turkey Working Paper, No: 12/4
Aydın, B. ve Ilgan, D. (2010) Bank Lending in Turkey: Effect of Monetary and Fiscal Policies, IMF Working Paper, WP/10/233
Bernanke, B. S. (1992-1993) Credit in Macroeconomy, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Quarterly Review, Spring 1992-93, 50-70
Bernanke, B. S.ve Blinder, A. S. (1992) The Federal Funds Rate and Channels of Monetary Transmission, American Economic Review, 82(4), 901-921
Bernanke, B. S. ve Blinder, A. S. (1988) Credit, Money and Aggregate Demand, American Economic Review, 78(2), 435-439
Blinder, A. S. ve Stiglitz, J. E. (1983) Money, Credit Constraints, and Economics Activity, The Americian Economic Review, 73(2), 297-302
Cover, J. P. (1992) Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money Supply Shocks, Quarterly Journal of Economies, 107(4), 1261-1282
Gertler, M. ve Gilchrist, S. (1993) The Role of Credit Market Imperfections in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Arguments and Evidence, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 95(1), 43-64
Johnston, J. ve Dinardo, J. (1997) Econometric Methods, Fourth Edition, USA: The McGraw-Hill Comp. Inc
Kashyap, A. K. ve Stein, J. C. (1994) Monetary Policy and Bank Lending, Monetary Policy (221-261), (Ed.), N. Gregory Mankiw, The University of Chicago Press
Kashyap, A. K. ve Stein, J. C. (2000) What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of MonetaryPolicy?, Amerikan Economic Review, 93(3), 407-428
Leamer, E. E. (1985) Vector Autoregression for Causal Inference?Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 22: 225-304
Matuet, S. ve Mizen, P. (2003) Trade Credit and Bank Lending: An Investigation into the Determinants of UK Manufacturing FirmsAcseess to Trade Credit, EUI Working Paper, No: 2003/3
Mishkin, F. S. (2009) The Econonomics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 9th Edition
Nilsen, J. H. (2002) Trade Credit and The Bank Lending Channel, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 31(1), 226-253
Öztürkler, H. ve Çermikli, A. H. (2007) Türkiyede Bir Parasal Aktarım Kanalı Olarak Banka Kredileri, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 44(514), 57-68
Scott, I. O. (1957) The Availability Doctrine: Development and Implications, The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 23(4), 532-539
Stein, J. C. (1998) An Adverse-Selection Model of Bank Asset and Liability Management with Implications for the Transmission of Monetary Policy, Journal of Economics, 29(3), 466-486
Stiglitz, J. ve Weiss, A. (1992) Asymmetric Information in Credit Markets and Its Implications for Macro-Economics, Oxford Economic Papers, 44(4), 694-724
Stiglitz, J. E. ve Weiss, A. (1981) Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information, The American Economic Review, 71(3), 393-410
Şengönül, A. ve Willem, T. (2005) The Effect of Monetary Policy on The Bank lending in Turkey, Applied Financial Economics, 15(13), 931-934
Sichei, M. M. (2005) Bank Lending Channel in South Africa: Bank-Level Dynamic Panel Data Analysis, University of Pretoria Department of Economics Working Paper Series: 2005-10
Taylor, J. B. (1995) The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An Empirical Framework, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 11-26
Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (2010) 2011 Yılında Para ve Kur Politikası 9 Aralık 2012 tarihinde http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/yeni/duyuru/2010/Baskan_ParaPol11.pdf adresinden erişildi
Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (2010) 2012 Yılında Para ve Kur Politikası. 9 Aralık 2012 tarihinde http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/yeni/duyuru/2010/Baskan_ParaPol11.pdf adresinden erişildi