TÜRKİYE'DE 1994, 2001 VE 2018-2021 KUR KRİZLERİNİN YENİ NESİL KRİZ TEORİLERİ ÇERÇEVESİNDE İNCELENMESİ

Yeni nesil kriz teorileri, 20.yy’ın son çeyreğinde Asya, Avrupa ve Güney Amerika’da yaşanan krizleri incelemek amacıyla geliştirilmiştir. Krizlerin farklılık göstermesinden dolayı kriz teorileri, birinci nesil, ikinci nesil ve üçüncü nesil olarak sınıflandırılmıştır. Bu teorilerin ortak noktası ise şudur; sabit kur uygulayan veya rezerv sorunu olan ülkelerde spekülatif kur saldırıları krizlerde etkilidir. Türkiye, 1994 ve 2001 krizlerinin ardından sabit kur rejimini terk etmiş ve dalgalı kur rejimine geçmiştir. Fakat merkez bankasının rezervlerinin sınırlı olması, yüksek dış borç ve artan cari açık nedeniyle Türkiye’nin kur dalgalanmalarına karşı kırılganlığı artırmıştır. Bu nedenle Türkiye 2014-2021 yılları arasında yeni spekülatif kur şoklarına maruz kalmıştır. Kur şokları makroekonomik dengeleri bozmuştur. Böylece Türkiye yeniden dış borç, enflasyon, faiz ve kur sarmalına girmiştir. Sonuç olarak P. Krugman’ın ifade ettiği gibi Türkiye’de kur dalgalanmalarından kaynaklanan bir para-borç krizi meydana gelmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Yeni Nesil Kriz Teorileri, Kur Krizi, Döviz Kurları, Türkiye Ekonomisi, Dış Borç

EXAMINING OF THE 1994, 2001 AND 2018-2021 CURRENCY CRISES IN TURKEY WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE NEW GENERATION CRISIS THEORIES

New generation crisis theories have been developed to examine the crisis in Asia, Europe and South America in the last quarter of 20th century. Crisis theories was classified as first generation, second generation and third generation because of the differences in crisis. The common points of these theories are as follows; speculative currency attacks are effective in crisis in countries that apply fixed exchange rates or have reserve problems. After the 1994 and 2001 crises, Turkey abandoned the fixed exchange rate regime and switched to the floating exchange rate regime. However, Turkey's vulnerability to exchange rate fluctuations has increased due to the limited reserves of the central bank, high external debt and increasing current account deficit. Therefore, Turkey has been exposed to new speculative exchange rate shocks between 2014-2021. Exchange rate shocks deteriorated the macroeconomic balances. Thus, Turkey has again entered the spiral of foreign debt, inflation, interest and exchange rate. As a result, as stated by P. Krugman, a money-debt crisis occurred in Turkey due to exchange rate fluctuations.

Keywords:

New Generation Crisis Theories, Currency Crisis, Exchange Rates, Turkey Economy, Foreign Debt,

PDF

___

Aghion, P., Bacchetta, P., & Banerjee, A. (2001). Currency Crisis and Monetary Policy in an Economy With Credit Constraints. European Economic Review, 45(7), 1121-1150.

Aghion, P., Bacchetta, P., Rancie` re, R., Rogoff, K. (2009). Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity growth: The role of financial development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 56,494–513

Akcay, Ü, Güngen, A. R. (2019). The making of Turkey's 2018-2019 Economic Crisis, Working Paper, No. 120/2019, Hochschule für Wirtschaft und Recht Berlin, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE), Berlin.

Akyüz, Y. (2000). Causes and Sources of the Asian Financial Crisis. Symposium on Economic and Financial Recovery in Asia UNCTAD X, Bangkok, 17 February 2000.

Babula, A., Ötker-Robe, İ. (2002). The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes Since 1990 Evidence from De Facto Policies. IMF Working Paper, No. 02/155.

Balassa, B. (1990). Financial Liberalization in Developing Countries. Studies in Comparative International Development, 25(4), 56-70

Bordo, M. D. (2003). Exchange Rate Regime Choice In Historicial PErspective. NBER Workin Paper Series, Working Paper No: 9654.

Broda, C. (2004). Terms of Trade and Exchange Rate Regimes In Developing Countries. Journal of International Economics, 63 (1) 31–58.

Burnside C., Eichenbaum M., Rebelo S. (2007). Currency crises models. In: Jones G. (eds) Banking Crises. Palgrave Macmillan, London.

Bsignano, J. (1999). Precarios Credit Equilibria: Reflections on the Asian Financial Crisis. Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department Basle, Switzerland.

Busch, A. (1994). The Crisis in the EMS. Government and Opposition, 29(1), 80-96.

Calvo, G. A. Mishkin, F.S. (2003). The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(4), 99–118.

Caramazza, F., Aziz, J. (1998). Fixed or Flexible? Getting the Exchange Rate Right in the 1990s. International Monetary Fund, Economic Issues (13).

Celasun, O. (2013). The 1994 Currency Crisis in Turkey. Macroeconomics and Growth Group Development Research Department, The World Bank. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.200.2705&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Chang, H.J. (2000). The Hazard of Moral Hazard: Untangling the Asian Crisis. World Development, 28(4), 775-788.

Chorev, N., Babb, S. (2009). The Crisis of Neoliberalism and the Future of International Institutions: A comparison of the IMF and the WTO. Theor Soc, 38, 459–484.

Chowdhury, A. (1993). Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error- Correction Models. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 75(4), 700-706.

Coakley, J. (1995). The ERM Crises and Maastricht. Review of International Political Economy, 2(3), 548-560.

Congressional Research Services, (2018). Turkey’s Currency Crisis. https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/IF10957.pdf

Corsetti, G., Pesenti, P., & Roubini, N. (1998). What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part I: A Macroeconomic Overview. NBER Working Paper, No: 6833.

Çakıcı, E. (2001). 2000–2001 Yılı Ekonomik Krizlerin Sebepleri ve Sonuçları. Yeni Türkiye Dergisi, Eylül- Ekim Ekonomik Kriz Sayısı, 475–490.

Delice, G. (2003). Finansal Krizler: Teorik ve Tarihsel Bir Perspektif. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 20, 57-81.

Dumenil, G., Levy, D. (2016). The Crisis of Neoliberalism. Cambridge, Massachusetts; London, England: Harvard University Press.

Economic Policy Uncertainty, (2021). https://www.policyuncertainty.com/

Edwards, S. (2020). Milton Friedman and Exchange Rates in Developing Contries. NBER, Working Paper 27975.

Eğilmez, M. (2020). Türkiye Ekonomisinin Son 17 Yılı. https://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2020/01/turkiye-ekonomisinin-son-17-yl.html

Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R. (1999). Exchange Rate and Financial Fregility. NBER, Working Peper No: 7418.

Eichengreen, B., Charles, W. 1993. The Unstable EMS. Discussion Paper No. 817. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research.

EVDS, (2021). https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket

Ewing, J. (2020). Turkey Braces for Yet Another Currency Crisis. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/27/business/turkey-currency-crisis.html

Fischer, S. (2001). Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(2), 3-34.

Fleming, J. (1962). Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and under Floating Exchange Rates. Staff Papers (International Monetary Fund), 9(3), 369-380.

Flood R. P., & Marion, N. (1998). Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature. NBER, Working Paper No: 6380, Cambridge.

Flood, R. P., & Rose, A. K. (1995). Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for Fundamentals. Journal of Monetary Economics, 36 (1), 3-37.

Flood, R.P., & Garben, P.M. (1984). Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes. Journal of International Economics 17 (1984) 1-13.

Friedman, M. (1953). The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates. Essays in Positive Economics, University of Chicago Press, Chicago (1953), pp. 157-203

Friedman, M. (1973). Statement and Testimony. In U.S. Congress, Joint Economic Committee, Hearings before Subcommittee on International Economics, How Well are Fluctuating Exchange Rates Working?, pp. 114-120. 93rd Congress, 1st Session, 20-27 June 1973.

Glick, R., & Hutchison, M. M. (2011). Currency Crises. Working Paper Series 2011-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Gros, D. (2014). The EMS Crisis of the 1990s Parallels with the present crisis? CEPS Working Documents, No. 393 / March 2014.

Güloğlu, B., Altunoğlu, E. (2002). Finansal Serbestleşme Politikaları ve Finansal Krizler: Latin Amerika, Meksika, Asya ve Türkiye Krizleri. I.Ü.Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, No: 27 (Ekim 2002), 107-134.

Hagen, J., Zhou, J. (2004). The Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes in Developing Countries: A Multinomial Panel Analysis. Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, 26(7), 1071-1094.

Heritage Foundation, (2021). 2020 Index of Economic Freedom: Trade Freedom. https://www.heritage.org/index/visualize.

IMF, (1998). The Asian Crisis: Causes and Cures. IMF's World Economic Outlook, Washington.

IMF, (2000). Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/ib/2000/062600.htm

IMF, (2019). Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions 2018. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC: IMF.

Investing, (2021). Turkey CDS 5 Years USD. https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/turkey-cds-5-year-usd

Köylüoğlu, B. (2019). 1994, 2001 ve 2018 Krizlerinin Karşılaştırılması. Strateji & Finans. https://www.stratejivefinans.com/kriz-dinamiklerini-anlamak-1994-2001-ve-2018-ekonomik-krizlerinin-karsilastirilmasi/

Krugman, P. (2001). Crisis: The Next Generation. https://econ.tau.ac.il/sites/economy.tau.ac.il/files/media_server/Economics/Sapir/conferences/Krugman.pdf

Krugman P. (1999a). Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises. In: Isard P., Razin A., Rose A.K. (eds) International Finance and Financial Crises. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-4004-1_2.

Krugman P. (1999b). What Happened to Asia. In: Sato R., Ramachandran R.V., Mino K. (eds) Global Competition and Integration. Research Monographs in Japan-U.S. Business & Economics, vol 4. Springer, Boston, MA.

Krugman, P, (1979). A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 11(3), 311-325.

Krugman, P. (2018a). Turmoil for Turkey’s Trump. The New York Times.

Krugman, P. (2018b). Partying Like It’s 1998. The New York Times

Levy-Yeyati, E. Y., Sturzenegger, F. (2001). Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Performance UTDT, CIF Working Paper No. 2/01, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=263826 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.263826

Levy-Yeyati, E., & Sturzenegge, F. (2003). To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth. The American Economic Review, 93 (4) 1173–1193.

Levy-Yeyati, E., & Sturzenegge, F. (2005). Classifying exchange rate regimes:Deeds vs. words. European Economic Review, 49 (6) 1603–1635.

Metz, C. E. (2003). First-Generation Model-Krugman (1979). In: Information Dissemination in Currency Crises. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, vol 527. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.

Mundell, R. (1963). Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates. The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science / Revue Canadienne D'Economique Et De Science Politique, 29(4), 475-485.

Nag, R. (2002). Macroeconomic Adjustment and Currency Crisis: A Third Generation Approach Under Rational Expectation. Indian Economic Review, 37(2), 221-232.

Obstfeld, M. (1994).The Logic of Currency Crises. Cahiers economique et monetaires, 43, 189–212. Radelet, Steven, and Jeffrey Sachs. (1998). “The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis.” Mimeo.

OECD, (2018). The Long View: Scenarios For The World Economy To 2060. https://www.oecdilibrary.org/docserver/b4f4e03een.pdf?expires=1556378964&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=8BCB9EC510768012E9719FF3ED547440

Ozkan, G. (2021). Turkey’s Collapsing Lira: Government is Running Oout of Options for Embattled Currency. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/turkeys-collapsing-lira-government-is-running-out-of-options-for-embattled-currency-143365

Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K. (1995). The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9 (4), 73-96.

Obstfelt, M. (1996). Models of Currency Crises With Self-Fulfilling Features. European Economic Review, 40, 1037-1047.

Portes, Richard. 1993. EMS and EMU After the Fall. The World Economy, 16(1): 1-16.

Rangvid, J. (2002). Second Generation Models of Currency Crisis. Journal of Economic Survyes, 15(5), 613-646.

Rateled, S., & Sachs, J. (2000). The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis. NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 105-153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Salant, S., & Henderson, D. (1978). Market Anticipations of Government Policies and the Price of Gold. Journal of Political Economy, 86(4), 627-648.

Sancak, C. (2002). Financial Liberalization and Real Investment: Evidence From Turkish Firms. IMF Working Paper, No:02/100.

Saqib, O. F. (2002). Interpreting Currency Crises : A Review of Theory, Evidence, and Issues. DIW Discussion Papers, No. 303, Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Berlin.

Saraçoğlu, R. (1996). 5 Financial Liberalization in Turkey. In Interest Rate Liberalization and Money Market Development. USA: International Monetary Fund. https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/books/071/03637-9781557755636-en/ch05.xml

Seyidoğlu, H. (2011). Uluslararası Mali Krizler, IMF Politikaları, Az Gelişmiş Ülkeler, Türkiye ve Dönüşüm Ekonomileri. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 4 (2), 141-156

Silvia, L. A. P., & Yoshitomi, M. (2001). Can “Moral Hazard” Explain the Asian Crises?. Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper 29, Tokyo.

Strateji ve Bütçe Başkanlığı, (2020). Yıllık Ekonomik Rapor 2020. https://www.sbb.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Yillik-Ekonomik-Rapor-.pdf.

Şanlı, O. (2021). 21.YY’da Korumacılığın Ticaret ve Kur Savaşları Kapsamında Küresel Ekonomiye Etkileri: Ampirik Bir Analiz. ADÜ Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayınlamamış Doktora Tezi.

TCMB, (2017). 2018 Yılı Para ve Kur Politikası. https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/6a7bcb27-bfce-4968-a63b-2f545f875be3/2018parakur.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-6a7bcb27-bfce-4968-a63b-2f545f875be3-m3fB7u3

TCMB, (2021a). Yıllık Faaliyet Raporu 2020. http://www3.tcmb.gov.tr/yillikrapor/2020/tr/index.html

TCMB, (2021b). https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/.

TCMB, (2021d). TCMB Rezervleri ve Swap İşlemleri 13 Ağustos 2021. https://tcmb-reserves.github.io/#

TMB, (2018). İnşaat Sektörü Analizi. TMB Araştırma Yayınları, Ekim-2018.

Turak, N. (2021). Erdogan Calls on Turks to Help Stabilize the Lira as Investors Fear a Monetary Crisis. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/24/erdogan-calls-on-turks-to-support-lira-investors-fear-monetary-crisis.html

Turan, Z. (2011). Dünyadaki ve Türkiye’deki Krizlerin Ortaya Çıkış Nedenleri ve Ekonomik Kalkınmaya Etkisi. Niğde Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 4(1), 56-80.

TÜSİAD, (2021). 2021 Türkiye Ekonomisi. Ekonomik Araştırmalar Bölümü Mart 2021, Yayın No: TÜSİAD-T/2021-03/620.

Ural, M. (2003). Finansal Krizler ve Türkiye. DEÜ.İ.İ.B.F.Dergisi, 18(1), 11-18.

Uygur, E. (2001). Krizden Krize Türkiye: 2000 Kasım ve 2001 Şubat Krizleri. Discussion Paper, No. 2001/1, Turkish Economic Association, Ankara.

Velis, J. O. (1995). The Collapse of the EMS: Symptomatic of a Doomed EMU? Fourth Biennial International Conference of the European Community Studies Association, Charleston, SC, May 11-14, 1995.

Winkler, A. (1994). The EMS crisis and the prospects for European Monetary Union. Intereconomics, 29(2), 68-74.

World Bank, (2021). https://data.worldbank.org/

Yeldan, E. (2009). Kapitalizmin Yeniden Finansallaşması ve 2007/2008 Krizi: Türkiye Krizin Neresinde? Çalışma ve Toplum, 2009/1, 11-28.

Yentürk, N. (1999). Short Term Capital Inflows and Their Impact on Macroeconomic Structure: Turkey ın the 1990s. The Developing Economies, 37(1), 89-113.

Yıldız, H. (2006). Türkiye’de Kamu Kesimi Borçlanma Gereğinin Artış Nedenleri ve Kamu Borçlarının Boyutları.. Mevzuat Dergisi, 9 (107).

Yiğitoğlu, A. İ. (2005). 2001 Krizi Sonrası Dönemde Türkiye Ekonomisinin ve Bankacılık Sektörünün Değerlendirilmesi. Sosyoekonomi, 2005-01, 115-125.

Yorulmaz, R. (2018). ABD Yaptırımları ve Kur Krizinin Bölge Ekonomilerine Yansımaları. Ortadoğu Araştırmaları Merkezi, No:218 / Eylül 2018.