Özge EREN, Hasan Volkan ORAL, Hasan SAYGIN

Peaks Over Threshold Method Application on Airborne Particulate Matter (PM10) and Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) Pollution Detection in Specified Regions of İstanbul

In this study, we investigate the application of peak over threshold (POT) method on extreme events which usually appears with lowfrequently but high effects. Daily averages of PM10 and SO2 pollutants are measured at 5 permanent monitoring stations in İstanbul(Beşiktaş, Yenibosna, Alibeyköy, Esenler, Aksaray). The SO2 and PM10 concentration data are obtained from İstanbul Municipalitythrough a period from January 2009 to December 2015. Daily averages of the concentrations are analyzed by using peaks over thresholdmethods of extreme value theory and then predicted for the largest concentrations for the following 12 months. We find that POTmethods can provide useful information about the occurrence of limit exceedances of air pollution in Istanbul and these models can easily be used to make short term predictions about limit exceedances. As a consequence, we can say that predicting the air pollutant levels of SO2 and PM10 will be beneficial for the decision makers which help them to develop advanced policies to control and prevent the air pollution.

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