Savunmacı realizm ve saldırgan realizm bağlamında Karadeniz havzası’ndaki çatışma gerçekliğinin değerlendirilmesi

Farklı coğrafi, toplumsal ve sosyo-ekonomik gerçekliklere eklemlenmiş bölgele- rin kesişim noktasında bulunan Karadeniz Havzası, Soğuk Savaş sonrası kapsam ve anlam bakımından ciddi bir başkalaşıma uğramıştır. Bu değişim havzanın ya- pısını ve görünümünü önemli oranda farklılaştırmış ve bölgenin içselleştirdiği çatışma yoğun ilişkiler ağının da konsolide edilmesini beraberinde getirmiştir. Uluslararası sistem bağlamında yaşanmaya başlanan hegemonya çok kutupluluk mücadelesinin Karadeniz Havzası’na olan olumsuz siyasal yansıması, havzanın çatışma yoğun ilişkiler ağına eklemlenmesinin en önemli nedeni olarak görülme- lidir. Bunun yanı sıra ekonomik azgelişmişlik, serbest pazar ekonomisine geçiş aşamasında yaşanan büyük çaplı sosyal problemler ve gecikmiş bir milliyetçiliğin siyasal arenaya iç çatışma ve katliamlar çerçevesinde yansıyan görünümleri, ta- rihsel ve etno-kültürel problemlerle birleştiği noktada, havzadaki çatışma ortamını güçlendirmektedir. Bu çalışma, Karadeniz Havzası’ndaki çatışma yoğun ilişkiler ağını, savunmacı realizm ve saldırgan realizm bağlamında değerlendirecek ve bu dikotominin havzadaki siyasal işleyişe olan etkisini örneklerle açıklamaya çalışacaktır.

Assessing the reality of conflict at the Black Sea basin within the context of defensive realism and offensive realism

Black Sea Basin, which situated at the junction point of different geographical and socio-economic authenticities, has varied seriously in terms of scope and inten- tion. This change has differentiated the structure and outlook of the basin and implied consolidation of the conflict-based multilateral relations that the region has interiorised. Negative reflection of the contention of hegemony and multipolarity at the international system is the most significant reason of the intensity of con- flict that has been realised at the basin. Besides; economical underdevelopment, full-scale social problems that has been shown up at the economical transition into the market economy and the bloody pictures of a late nationalism strengthens the political collision when it has associated with the historical and ethno-cultural problems at the basin. This study will deal with the conflictual political outlook of the basin within the context of defensive realism and offensive realism. This work will also try to explain the effect of this dichotomy at the political functioning of the Black Sea basin.

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