KÖPRÜNÜN ALTINA SU TAŞIMAK: HİNDİSTAN-PAKİSTAN SU İLİŞKİLERİ ÖRNEĞİ

Su, dünyadaki yaşam için olmazsa olmazdır. İnsanların refahından tüm türlerin varlığına kadar, suyun gereklil-iği, insan yaşamının neredeyse tüm boyutlarını içine alır. Bununla birlikte, suyun bolluğu yıkıma neden olurken, eksikliği ise gıda güvensizliğine ve iklim değişikliğine bağlı diğer etkilenmelere neden olabilmektedir. Bu bağlamda, iki Güney Asya ülkesinde - Hindistan ve Pa-kistan - su kıtlığının gelecekte su savaşlarına yol açabi-lecek potansiyel etkileri konusunda artan bir endişe bu-lunmaktadır. İndus Nehri, yaklaşık 200 milyon Pakistanlı için ana su kaynağıdır. Son on yıllarda nüfusun hızlı bir şekilde artması, bir zamanlar ülkenin sıhhati ve gelişimi için bereketli bir kaynak olan su üzerinde yeni baskılar yaratmaktadır. Öte yandan, İndus nehri sularını pay-laşan Pakistan ve Hindistan arasında artan gerilimler, dünyanın zaten patlamaya hazır bu bölgesinde şiddetli çatışmalara da yol açabilir. Bu bağlamda, bu makale üç önemli soruyu cevaplamaya çalışacaktır: (i) Su güven-sizliği Güney Asya’nın bölgesel güvensizliğine nasıl yol açabilir? ii) Hindistan ve Pakistan, özellikle İndus Su Anlaşması örneğinde, su gerilimine nasıl karşı koy-abilirler? (iii) Hindistan’ın Afganistan’daki Kabil Nehri ve söz konusu İndus Nehri boyunca inşa ettiği çok amaçlı barajların temel amacı nedir ve Pakistan, Hindistan’ın bu hamlelerine karşı nasıl bir strateji geliştirmektedir? Uluslararası İlişkiler teorileri dikkate alındığında, İnsan Güvenliği Çerçevesi ve Bölgesel Güvenlik Kompleksi Te-orisi, su geriliminin Hindistan ve Pakistan arasında nasıl tam bir ihtilafla sonuçlanabileceğini kanıtlamaktadır.

BRINGING WATER UNDER THE BRIDGE: A CASE FOR INDIA-PAKISTAN WATER RELATIONS

Water is sine qua non for life on the globe. From people’s prosperity to the existence of all species, the essentiality of water engulfs almost all dimensions of human life. Its abundance, however, can result in destruction and its shortage can result in food insecu-rity and other climate change-induced effects. Within this context, there is a growing concern in two South Asian states - Pakistan and India - about the potential impacts of water scarcity resulting in future water wars. For almost 200 million people of Pakistan, the Indus Riv-er is the main source of water. A rapid increase in the population over the past decades has also created new pressures on water that was once a plentiful resource for the health and development of the country. On the other hand, the escalating tensions between Pakistan and India, which share the Indus flow, may also lead to violent confrontation in an already turbulent part of the world. In this context, this paper will try to answer three significant questions: (i) How water insecurity can lead to regional insecurity of South Asia? (ii) How can India and Pakistan counter water stress, specifically in the case of Indus Water Treaty? (iii) What is the main purpose of the multi-purpose dams built by India along the Kabul River in Afghanistan and the Indus River and how does Pakistan strategize itself to counter Indian moves? Taking notes from theories of International Relations, Human Security Framework and Regional Security Complex Theory would prove as how water stress can result in a full fledge conflict between Indian and Pakistan.

___

  • Abseno, Musa M. “The influence of the UN Watercourses Convention on the Development of a Treaty Regime in the Nile River Basin”, Water International. Vol. 38, No. 2, 2013, pp. 192- 203.
  • Adeel, Zafar, and Wirsing, Robert G. Imagining Industan: Overcoming Water Insecurity in the Indus Basin. Switzerland: Springer, 2017.
  • Ahmad, Ayaz. Iftikhar Hina and Chaudhary, G. M., “Water Resources and Conversation Strategy of Pakistan”, The Pakistan Development Review, Vol. 46, No. 4, Part II (Winter), 2007, pp. 997-1009.
  • Ahmad, Azhar. “Indus Water Treaty: A Dispassionate Analysis”, Policy Perspectives, Vol. 8, No. 2, July-December 2011, pp. 73-83.
  • Ahmed, Imtiaz, South Asian Rivers: a Framework for Cooperation. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018.
  • Akhtar, Shaheen, “Emerging Challenges to Indus Water Treaty: Issues of Compliance and Transboundry Impacts of Indian Hydroprojects on the Western Rivers”, Institute of Regional Studies (IRS), Vol,28, No:4, 2010, pp. 3-66.
  • Akhter, Majed. “The Hydropolitical Cold War: The Indus Waters Treaty and State Formation in Pakistan”, Political Geography, Vol. 46, 2015, pp. 65-75.
  • Alam, Undala Z. “Questioning the Water Wars Rationale: A Case Study of the Indus Waters Treaty.” The Geographical Journal 168, No. 4: 2002, pp:341-353.
  • Ashraf, Malik Muhammad, “Arbitration on Water”, The News, December 19, 2019, https://www. thenews.com.pk/print/585297-arbitration-on-water, accessed on 01.03.2020.
  • Asia Sentinel, “Climate Change-Induced Migration”, September 24, 2019, https://www. asiasentinel.com/p/climate-change-induced-migration, accessed on 25.12.2019.
  • Azam, Shakeel. “Kabul River Treaty: A Necessity for Peace-Security Between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and Peace in South Asia”, Gomal University Journal of Research, Vol. 31, No. 2, December, 2015, pp. 134-145.
  • Awan, Zamir Ahmed, “Kashmir: A Nuclear Flash Point”, 18.08.2019, https://moderndiplomacy. eu/2019/08/18/kashmir-a-nuclear-flash-point/, accessed on 27.01.2020.
  • Bayur, Y. Hikmet. Hindistan Tarihi, II. Volume. 2th edition, 1987.
  • Bhaumik, Anirban. “Kabul dam construction may rekindle Indo-Pak water row”, DHNS, New Delhi, Aug 13 2018, https://www.deccanherald.com/national/kabul-dam-constructionmay- 687288.html. accessed on 25.01.2020.
  • Buzan, Barry and Wæver, Ole. Regions and Power: The Structure of International Security, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003.
  • Chellaney, Brahma. “Water: Asia’s New Battleground”, Washington: Georgetown University Press, 2011.
  • Dixon, Homer., F. Thomas. “Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases,” International Security. Vol. 1, No.5, 1994, pp. 5–40.
  • Earthscan and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. “The State of the Worlds Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture Managing Systems at Risk”, Milton Park (Abingdon), London, 2011.
  • Fact Sheet: The Indus Water Treaty 1960 and Role of the World Bank, June 11, 2018, https:// www.worldbank.org/en/region/sar/brief/fact-sheet-the-indus-waters-treaty-1960-andthe- world-bank, accessed on 17.01.2020.
  • Ghazi, Tariq Waseem and Munir uz Zaman, A.N.M. and Singh, A.K. “Climate Change & Security in South Asia: Cooperating for Peace,” Global Military Advisory Council on Climate Change, Paper No. 2, 2016.
  • Grey, David and Genevieve Connors. “The Water Security Imperative: We must and can do more”, Official Delegate Publication for the 5th World Water Forum, Istanbul, 2009.
  • Haines, Daniel. “(Inter)Nationalist rivers?: cooperative development in David Lilienthal’s plan for the Indus Basin”, 1951. Water Hist, Vol. 6, 2014, pp. 133-151.
  • Hashmat, Said and Sayed, Sadat Nasrat. “Afghanistan: Water management for peace”, 2019, https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/afghanistan-water-management-peace. accessed on 27.01.2020.
  • Hill, Douglas P. “Trans-boundary Water Resources, Crisis and Uneven Development in South Asia,” South Asia Journal of South Asian Studies. Vol. 36, No.2, 2013, pp. 243–257.
  • Iffat, Pervaz. and Khan, M. Sheharyar. “Brewing Conflict over Kabul River; Policy Options for Legal Framework”, ISSRA Papers, 2014, pp. 17-38.
  • Khan, Hidayat Ullah, “India’s Dam-Building Boom Fuels Water Wars Between Pakistan And Afghanistan”, occupy.com, 2019, https://www.occupy.com/article/india-s-dambuilding- boom-fuels-water-wars-between-pakistan-and-afghanistan#sthash.WhKuq9aA. dpbs, accessed on 25.01. 2020.
  • World Bank, “Indus Waters Treaty”, 1960, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTSOUTHASIA/ Resources/2234971105737253588/IndusWatersTreaty1960.pdf, accessed on 25.01.2020.
  • Iqbal, Muhammad Mazhar., Muhammad Shoaib., Paul Agwanda, and Jung Lyul Lee. “Modeling Approach for Water-Quality Management to Control Pollution Concentration: A Case Study of Ravi River, Punjab, Pakistan”, Water, Vol. 10, No.8, 2018, pp. 1-20.
  • Johnson, Keith. “Are India and Pakistan on the Verge of a Water War?” Foreign Policy, February 25, 2019, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/02/25/are-india-and-pakistan-on-the-vergeof- a-water-war-pulwama-kasmir-ravi-indus/, accessed on 25.01.2020.
  • Kadurugamuwa, Niluka, “Sharing of Trans-Boundary River Waters in South Asia; Geopolitics and Beyond”, 2014, https://www.academia.edu/20045513/Sharing_of_ TransBoundary_River_Waters_in_South_Asia_Geopolitics_and_Beyond, accessed on 25.01.2020.
  • Kumar, Rohitashw and Gautam, Harender Raj. “Climate Change and its Impact on Agricultural Productivity in India”, Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting, Vol. 2, No. 1, 2014.
  • Mack, Thomas. J., Chornack M.P. and Taher, M.R. “Groundwater-level Trends and İmplications for Sustainable Water Use in The Kabul Basin, Afghanistan”, Environ Syst Decis, Vol. 33, 2013, pp. 457–467.
  • Mall, Rajesh K., Gupta A, Singh R, Singh RS, Rathore LS. “Water resources and climate change: An Indian perspective”, Current Science, Vol. 90, No. 12, 2006, pp: 1610-1626.
  • Nabi, Ghulam., Ali, Murad., Khan, Suliman, and Kumar, Sunjeet. “The Crisis Of Water Shortage and Pollution In Pakistan: Risk To Public Health, Biodiversity, and Ecosystem”, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Vol. 26, No. 11, April 2019, pp. 10443- 10445.
  • Nafees, Mohammad., Khan, Shabir Ahmad and Zahidullah. “Construction of Dam on Kabul River and its Socio-Economic Implication for Khyber Pukhtunkhwa”, University of Peshawar, Pakistan, 2016.
  • Neil S. Grigg, “Global Water Infrastructure: State of the Art Review”, International Journal of Water Resources Development, Vol. 35, No. 2, 2019, pp. 181-205.
  • NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratories, Global Monitoring Laboratory, Mauna Loa, Atmospheric CO2 Annual Mean Data, 2020, https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/ trends/, accessed on 15.04.2020.
  • Pakistan 2025: One Nation, One Vision, Ministry of Planning Development and Reform, available at https://www.pc.gov.pk/uploads/vision2025/Pakistan-Vision-2025.pdf, accessed on 31.01.2020.
  • Pakistan Defence, “India to help Afghanistan build 12 dams on Kabul River”, 2011, https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/india-to-help-afghanistan-build-12-dams-on-kabulriver. 108204/, accessed on 31.01.2020.
  • Ramachandran, Sudha. “India’s Controversial Afghanistan Dams. The Diplomat”, Tokyo, 20.08.2020, https://thediplomat.com/2018/08/indias-controversial-afghanistandams/, accessed on 27.01.2020.
  • Ranjan, Amit. “Disputed Waters: India, Pakistan and the Transboundary Rivers”. Studies in Indian Politics, Vol. 4, No.2, 2016, pp. 191-205.
  • Shakeel, Azam. “Kabul River Treaty: A Necessity for Peace-Nsecurity Between Afghanistan and Pakistan, And Peace in South Asia”, Gomal University Journal of Research, Vol. 31, No. 2, 2015, pp. 134-145.
  • Sharma, Ameesh Kumar, and Thakur, N.S. “Resource Potential and Development Of Small Hydro Power Projects In Jammu And Kashmir In The Western Himalayan Region: India”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 52, December, 2015, pp. 1354-1368. Swain, Ashok. “Environmental Cooperation in South Asia. In Environmental Peacemaking”,
  • Conca, K. & Dabelko, G. D. (eds). Woodrow Wilson Center Press, Washington, DC, 2002. Tayib, Bromand M. Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Kabul River Basin. Afghanistan. Ritsumeikan University. Shiga, Japan, 2015.
  • The Economic Times Pakistan raises India’s ‘violation’ of Indus Waters Treaty with World Bank, 12.05.2018, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/pakistanraises- indias-violation-of-indus-waters-treaty-with-world bank/articleshow/64271901. cms?from=mdr, accessed on 31.01.2020.
  • The News, Pakistan third amongst countries facing water shortages, 14.01.2019, https:// www.thenews.com.pk/print/418698-pakistan-third-amongst-countries-facing-watershortages, accessed on 31.01.2020.
  • State Bank of Pakistan’s Annual Report 2016-17, “Water Sustainability in Pakistan- Key Issues and Challenges”, http://www.sbp.org.pk/reports/annual/arFY17/Anul-index-eng-17. htm, accessed on 07.01.2020.
  • Yousaf, Suliman. “Kabul River and Pak-Afghan Relations”, Central Asia Journal No. 80, Summer, 2017, pp. 97-112.
  • Yu, Winston H., Yang, Yi-Chen; Savitsky, Andre; Alford, Donald; Brown, Casey; Wescoat, James;
  • Debowicz, Dario; Robinson, Sherman et al, The Indus Basin of Pakistan-The Impacts of Climate Risks on Water and Agriculture. World Bank, Washington, DC, World Bank, 2013.
  • Zaman, Fahim and Syed Muhammad Abubakar. “Assessing India’s Water Threat,” Dawn, 2016, https://www.dawn.com/news/1292901, accessed on 07.01.2020.
  • Zawahri, Neda A. “India, Pakistan and Cooperation Along the Indus River System”, Water Policy, Vol. 11, Issue 1, 2009, pp. 1-20.
  • Zawahri, Neda and Michel, David, “Assessing the Indus Waters Treaty from a Comparative Perspective”, Water International, Vol. 43, No. 5, 2018, pp. 696-712.