İHRACATIN ÇEŞİTLENDİRİLMESI VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLIŞKİSİ: GEÇİŞ EKONOMİLERİ ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ÇALIŞMA

Bu çalışmada 1995-2016 yıllarına ait veri ve panel veri yöntemleri kullanılarak ihracatın çeşitlendirilmesinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi 25 geçiş ekonomisi örneğinde incelenmiştir. Yatırımlar, işgücü ve ihracata ilişkin değişkenlerin de yer aldığı büyüme modellerinde ihracatın çeşitlendirilmesinin büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin negatif olduğu yönünde sonuçlara ulaşılmıştır. Bu sonucun, araştırma konusu olan ülkelerin büyük bir çoğunluğunda ihracat yapısının ve çeşitlendirmenin ağırlıklı olarak düşük katma değerli, kaynak temelli, işlenmemiş veya düşük düzeyde işlenmiş ürünlere dayanıyor olmasından kaynaklanabileceği düşünülmektedir. Bu nedenle, söz konusu ülkelerin istikrarlı büyüme oranlarına sahip olmaları ve uluslararası piyasalarda kaynak temelli veya birincil ürünlerin fiyatlarında veya bunlara yönelik talepte ortaya çıkan dalgalanmalardan daha az etkilenmeleri için ihracat sepetlerini yüksek katma değerli veya orta ve yüksek teknoloji yoğunluklu ürünleri içerecek şekilde geliştirmeleri gerektiği düşünülmektedir.

EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON TRANSITION ECONOMIES

Using panel data methods this paper investigates the effect of export diversification on economic growth in 25 transition economies for the period from 1995 to 2016. In the growth models, which include investments, labor force and export-related variables, it is concluded that the effect of export diversification on the economic growth is negative. It is thought that, these result is mainly due to the argument that in the vast majority of these countries the export structure and the export diversification are mainly based on the low value-added, resource-based, unprocessed or low-processed products. Therefore, in order to have stable growth rates and to be affected less by the price and demand fluctuations of the resource-based or primary products, these countries are expected to diversify their export to include high value-added or medium- and high-tech products.

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