TİCARET POLİTİKASI BELİRSİZLİĞİ VE DIŞ TİCARET İLİŞKİSİ ÜZERİNE İNCELEMELER: TÜRKİYE İÇİN ÖNERİLER

Ülkeler tarafından özellikle 2008 küresel finansal krizinden sonra korumacı politikalar kolayca toparlanabilmek için yaygın kullanılan birer araç haline gelmiştir. Ancak korumacı eğilim ABD başkanı Donalt Trump’ın göreve gelmesinin ardından, Trans Pasifik Ortaklık (TPP) Anlaşması'ndan çekilmesi ve Transatlantik Ticaret ve Yatırım Ortaklığı (TTIP) Anlaşması müzakerelerine ara vermesi ile çok başka bir boyuta taşınmaya başlanmış. Buna bağlı olarak tüm dünya’da korumacı politikalar ve söylemlerle beraber ticaret politikası belirsizliğinin de arttığı gözlemlenmeye başlamıştır. Özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerin piyasaları bundan en çok etkilendiği gözlenmiştir. Ticaret politikası belirsizliği arttığında, fonlar gelişmekte olan ülkelerden diğer ülkelere doğru hareket etmeye başlar. Güvenli bir cennet arayışıyla daha gelişmiş olan ülkelere yönelim başlar. Buda ülkelerden kaçan finansal araçların ülkelerin borç yükü ve riskini ayrıca artırmasına sebep olmaktadır. İşte bu çalışma ile özellikle uluslararası literatür incelenerek, Türkiye açısından benzer sorunlarla karşılaşmaması için görüş ve önerilerin sunulması amaçlanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ticaret Politikası Belirsizliği, Dış Ticaret, TTIP, TPP, 2008 Küresel Finans Krizi

PDF

___

Abel, A. B. 1983. Optimal investment under uncertainty. American Economic Review 73 (1):228–33. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1803942.
Armelius, H., C. Belfrage, and H. Stenbacka. 2014. The mystery of the missing world trade growth after the global financial crisis. Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review 2014 (3):7–22.
Arrow, K. J. (1971). Essays in the theory of risk-bearing. Amsterdam: North Holland.
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593–1636, https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024
Bartsch, Z. (2019). Economic policy uncertainty and dollar-pound exchange rate return volatility. Journal of International Money and Finance, 98, 102067.
Bar−Ilan, A., and W. C. Strange. 1996. Investment lags. American Economic Review 86 (3):610–22. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2118214.
Beckmann, J., & Czudaj, R. (2017). Exchange rate expectations and economic policy uncertainty. European Journal of Political Economy, 47, 148-162.
Bernanke, B. S. (1983). Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. The quarterly Journal of economics, 98(1), 85-106.
Boz, E., M. Bussiere, and C. Marsilli. 2015. Recent slowdown in global trade: Cyclical or structural. In Global trade slowdown: A new normal, ed. B. Hoekman, 55–70. London: CEPR.
Bloom, N. (2009). The impact of uncertainty shocks. Econometrica, 77(3),623–685.
Caldara, D., & Iacoviello, M. (2018). Measuring Geopolitical Risk. International Finance Discussion Paper.
Caldara, D., Iocoviello, M., Molligo, P., Prestipino, A. ve Raffo, A. (2019). The economic effects of trade policy uncertainity. Federal Reserve System, International / Finance Discussion Papers, No.1256, 1-22.
Cebreros, A., Chiquiar, D., Heffner, A. ve Salcedo, A. (2019). Trade policy uncertainity an its effect on foreign direct investment and export participation: Evidence from Mexico. Tenth BIS CCA Research Conference “Macro Models and Micro Data”, Central Bank of Argentina, 23-24 May 2019, 1-43.
Chen, L., Du, Z., & Hu, Z. (2020). Impact of econo mic policy uncertainty on exchange rate volatility of China. Finance Research Letters, 32, 101266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2019.08.014
Crowley, M., Meng, N., & Song, H. (2018). Tariff scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms. Journal of International Economics, 114, 96-115.
Eryılmaz, F. ve Hekim Yılmaz, D. (2020). Ticaret Politikası Belirsizliğinin Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerin Riskine Etkisi: Amprik Bir İnceleme. Tesam Akademi Dergisi, 7(1), 91-112. http://dx.doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.696190.
Gilchrist, S., Sim, J. W., & Zakrajšek, E. (2014). Uncertainty, financial frictions, and investment dynamics (No. w20038). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Goldstein, M., & Khan, M. S. (1985). Income and price effects in foreign trade. Handbook of international economics, 2, 1041-1105.
Greenland, A., Ion, M., & Lopresti, J. (2019). Exports, investment and policy uncertainty Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 52(3), 1248-1288.
Hlatshwayo, S., & Saxegaard, M. M. (2016). The consequences of policy uncertainty: Disconnects and dilutions in the South African real effective exchange rate-export relationship. International Monetary Fund.
Handley, K. (2014). Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and evidence. Journal of International Economics 94 (1):50–66. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.05.005.
Handley, K. & Limao H. (2012). Trade and investment under policy uncertainty: Theory and firm evidence. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, 17790, 1-70
Handley, K., & Limao, N. (2015). Trade and investment under policy uncertainty: theory and firm evidence. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 7(4), 189-222.
Jaaskela, J., and N. Mathews. 2015. Explaining the slowdown in global trade. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Bulletin:39–46.
Laffont, J. J. (1989). The economics of uncertainty and information. London: MIT Press.
Kannadhasan, M., & Das, D. (2019). Do Asian emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk alike? A quantile regression approa ch. Finance Research Letters, 34, 1–7.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2019.08.024
Mahadevan, R., & Suardi, S. (2008). A dynamic analysis of the impact of uncertainty on import- and/or export-led growth: The experience of Japan and the Asian tigers. Japan and the World Economy, 20(2), 155–174. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2006.10.001
Mansour-Ichrakieh, L., & Zeaiter, H. (2019). The role of geopolitical risks on the Turkish economy opportunity or threat. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 50(March), 101000. https://doi.org/10. 1016/j.najef.2019.101000
Mayda, A. M., Facchini, G., Liu, M. Y. ve Zhou, M. (2018). China’s “Great Migration”: The impact of the reduction in trade policy uncertainty. Working Papers gueconwpa~18-18-06, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
Nguyen, D. (2012). Demand uncertainty: Exporting delays and exporting failures. Journal of International Economics 86 (2):336–44. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.10.007.
Novy, D., and A. M. Taylor. (2020). Trade and uncertainty. The Review of Economics and Statistics 102 (4):749–65. doi:https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00885.
Osnago, A., Piermartini, R. ve Rocha, N. (2015). Trade policy uncertainty as barrier to trade. WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2015-05, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division
Tam, P. S. (2018). Global trade flows and economic policy uncertainty. Applied Economics 50 (34–35):3718–34. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1436151.
Tiwari, A. K., Das, D., & Dutta, A. (2019). Geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty and tourist arrivals: Evidence from a developing country. Tourism Management, 75(June), 323–327. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.06.002
Tunç, C., Solakoğlu, M. N., Babuşçu, S., & Hazar, A. (2018). Exchange rate risk and international trade: The role of third country effect. Economics Letters, 167, 152-155.
Wang, Y., Chen, C. R., & Huang, Y. S. (2014). Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 26, 227-243.