Jeopolitik/Jeoekonomik Depremler Çağı’nda Güney Kafkasya: II. Karabağ ve Ukrayna Savaşları’nın Bölgesel Etkileri Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme

Makalede, Güney Kafkasya’da yakın vadede meydana gelen dönüşüm ve dünya sisteminin başat aktörleri arasındaki münasebetleri yeniden düzenleyen kutuplaşma iklimi, karşılıklı etkileşim alanlarını dikkate alan jeopolitik ve jeoekonomik perspektiflerden analiz edilmektedir. Ardından da bölgeyi bekleyen muhtemel geleceğe dair bazı gerekçelendirilmiş tahayyüller üzerinde durulmaktadır. Çalışmaya hakim olan bakış açısı, Güney Kafkasya’yı bölge dışı müdahil güçlerin edilgen rekabet alanı sayan yaklaşımlardan farklıdır. İlk olarak Güney Kafkasya’nın dinamiklerini inşa eden tarihi, jeopolitik ve jeoekonomik süreç açıklanmıştır. Bölge devletlerinin önem ve kapasiteleri, kendi güçleri ve üçüncü taraflarla ilişkileri bakımından ortaya konularak Türkiye-Azerbaycan İttifakı’nın II. Karabağ Savaşı’ndaki askeri, siyasi ve diplomatik başarısı tahlil edilmiştir. Ardından, Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı’nın Güney Kafkasya üzerindeki muhtemel etkileri masaya yatırılmıştır. Ukrayna’nın işgali üzerine devreye sokulan Batılı jeoekonomik strateji ile Rusya’nın jeoekonomik araçları arasındaki mücadele incelenmiştir. Bu çerçevede, değişen enerji ve ulaşım güzergahlarının dikkatleri nasıl Güney Kafkasya’nın da parçası olduğu Türk kuşağı üzerinde topladığı gösterilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Türkiye-Azerbaycan ittifakı, Güney Kafkasya, Jeoekonomi, Jeopolitika, II. Karabağ Savaşı, Ukrayna Savaşı, Türk Kuşağı

South Caucasus in the Age of Geopolitical/Geoeconomic Earthquakes: An Evaluation of the II. Karabakh and Ukraine Wars' Effects on the Region

In the article, the mutual interaction between the recently transformed South Caucasus and the current polarization climate that is rearranging the relations of the dominant actors in the World system are analyzed from geopolitical and geoeconomic views. Besides, some grounded imaginations about the possible future of the region are emphasized. The perspective that dominates the study is different from the approaches that regard the South Caucasus as a passive competition area of outside powers. First, the historical, geopolitical, and geoeconomic processes that built the dynamics of the South Caucasus are explained. The importance and capacities of the regional states and their relations with third parties are presented. In the second phase, the military, political and diplomatic successes of the Turkey-Azerbaijan Alliance in the II Karabakh War are analyzed. Then, the possible effects of the Russia-Ukraine War on the South Caucasus are discussed. The struggle between the Western geoeconomic strategy, which has been put into action after the invasion of Ukraine, and the counter-geoeconomic tools of Russia are examined. In this context, it is shown how the changing energy and transportation routes draw attention to the Turkish belt, of which the South Caucasus is also a significant part.

Keywords:

Turkey-Azerbaijan alliance, South Caucasus, Geoeconomics, Geopolitics, II. Karabakh War, Turkish Belt, Ukrainian War,

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