Selim BAŞAR, Özgür POLAT, M. Sinan TEMURLENK, Hayati AKSU

Türkiye'de kamu harcamaları ve büyüme ilişkisi: Sınır testi yaklaşımı

Kamu harcamaları ile iktisadi büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi ilk defa ortaya koyan Wagner, bu ilişkinin ekonomik büyümeden kamu harcamalarına doğru olduğuna işaret etmiştir. Keynes ise bu ilişkinin kamu harcamalarından büyümeye doğru olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Wagner ve Keynes yaklaşımları çerçevesinde bu çalışmada, 1975-2005 dönemi yıllık veriler kullanılarak Türkiye’de kamu harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı ile test edilmiştir. Kamu harcamaları ve büyüme arasındaki ilişki toplam ve alt kalemler itibariyle analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda elde edilen bulgular, alt kalemler itibariyle kamu harcamaları ile büyüme arasında bir ilişki bulunmadığına, Wagner yaklaşımının incelenen dönem itibariyle Türkiye ekonomisi için geçerli olmadıklarına işaret etmektedir. Toplam kamu harcamaları ise hâsıladan negatif olarak etkilenmektedir.

Government spending and economic growth relationship in Turkey: A bound testing approach

Wagner, put forward relation between government spending and economic growth the first time, offered a model that this relation is from growth to government expenditures. But according to Keynes, this relation is from government spending to growth. In the perspective of Wagner’s and Keynes’ propositions, relation between government spending and growth in Turkish economy is tested using Bound Testing Approach and annual data for 1975-2005 period in this study. Besides total public expenditures, its subtitles are also used in analysis. It is found that there is no relation between public spending subtitles and economic growth, and propositions of Wagner are not valid for Turkish economy in the period analyzed. Total government spending is affected negatively by economic growth.

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