Enflasyon, Faiz ve Döviz Kuru İlişkileri: Türkiye İçin ARDL Analizleri İle Asimetrik Eş-Bütünleşme Araştırması (2003: 01-2017: 12)

İktisat literatüründe yurtiçi fiyatlar üzerine döviz kuru değişmelerinin etkileriyayılma etkileri olarak adlandırılmaktadır. Buna göre ticarete konu olan sektörlerdeki fiyatlarınyayılma derecesi ne kadar yüksekse, döviz kuru değişmeleri de ticarete konu olan ve olmayanmalların nispi fiyatlarını o kadar etkilemektedir. Dolayısıyla döviz kurları ticaret bilançosundakiayarlamaları nispeten teşvik edici rol oynamakta ve buna karşılık yayılma derecesi düşükolduğunda da döviz kurundaki değişmeler ekonominin dış dengesini sağlamaktan uzakolmaktadır. Türkiye ekonomisi özelinde 2003:01-2017:12 arası dönem için nominal faiz oranlarıve TÜFE ile nominal kurun logaritmaları alınarak ARDL analizleri ile asimetrik eş-bütünleşmemetoduyla konunun ele alınması yoluna gidilmiştir. Sonuçlar değerlendirildiğinde enflasyonunfaiz oranlarından değil, sadece kısa dönemde nominal kurdaki değişimlere daha duyarlı olduğugörülmüştür. Buna karşılık faiz oranlarının dış ticaret riskinin yansıması olarak kurlardan önemliderecede etkilendiği belirlenirken, kurların da faiz oranlarından kuvvetli bir şekilde etkilendiğitespit edilmiştir. Politika çıkarımı olarak Türkiye ekonomisinde dış açığa bağımlılığın azalacak vedolayısıyla dış riski yüksek bir ekonomi olmaktan çıkaracak uygulamalara ağırlık vermesigerektiği söylenebilir. Bu mekanizmaların hayatiyet bulması ise faiz-kur ilişkileri arasındakinedenselliği azaltacağı söylenebilir.

Relationships Among Inflation, Interest Rate and Excahange Rate: ARDL Analysis with Asymmetric Co-Integration Research for Turkey (2003:01-2017:12)

In the economic literature, the effects of exchange rate changes on domestic prices are called as spreading effects. According to this, the higher the spreading rate of the prices in the sectors subject to commercialization, the more the exchange rate changes affect the relative prices of the goods which are subject to the trade. Hence, exchange rates play a relatively incentive role in trade balance adjustments, and even when the spread is low, the changes of the foreign exchange rate remain far away the external balance of economy. In special of Turkey’s economy, by taking the logarithm of the nominal interest rate, CPI and the nominal exchange rate for the period between 2003:01 and 2017:12, ARDL analyzes and asymmetric cointegration methods have been studied. When the results are evaluated, it is seen that inflation is more sensitive to changes in the nominal exchange rate in the short term than to the interest rates. While it was determined that the interest rates were significantly affected by the currencies as a reflection of the foreign trade risk, it has been found that the exchange rates were strongly affected by the interest rates. As policy inference, it can be said that Turkey's foreign trade deficit will decrease dependence on foreign economy, and therefore is likely to cease to be a high risk of the economy. Finding the viability of these mechanisms can be suggested to reduce the causality relationships between the interest rate-exchange rate.

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