BELİRSİZLİK KAVRAMI, BELİRSİZLİK ÖLÇÜTLERİ VE BELİRSİZLİĞİN MAKROEKONOMİK ETKİLERİ ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME

Öz Bu çalışmada iktisatta belirsizlik kavramı üzerinde durulmuş, 2008/2009 küresel finansal krizi sonrası oluşturulan belirsizlik ölçütleri değerlendirilmiş ve belirsizliğin makroekonomik etkileri incelenmiştir. Belirsizlik kavramı Cantillon ile iktisadi içerik kazanmış, ancak geleneksel iktisat tam bilgi varsayımı altında kurulan modeller çerçevesinde gelişmiş ve belirsizlik ihmal edilmiştir. Knight ve Keynes 1921 yılında yazdıkları “Risk, Belirsizlik ve Kar” ve “Olasılık Üzerine İnceleme” adlı çalışmalarında belirsizliği ölçülemez bir kavram olarak nitelendirmiştir. Ancak, belirsizlik kavramına yönelik ilgi iktisatta matematiksel modellerin artarak kullanımıyla birlikte 1950’lerden itibaren azalmıştır. 2008/2009 küresel finansal krizinde belirsizlik çeşitli açılardan ortaya çıkmış ve belirsizlik kavramına ilgi artmıştır. Kriz sonrası yapılan birçok çalışmada farklı belirsizlik ölçütleri oluşturulmuş ve belirsizliğin ekonomiye etkileri irdelenmiştir.

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