Mevsimsel rasyonel beklentiler yaşam boyu sürekli gelir hipotezinin testi

Üçer aylık frekansta gözlenen tüketim harcamalarında ciddi boyutta mevsimsellik görülmektedir. Osborn (1988) ekonometrik analizden önce mevsimselliği gidermek yerine, tüketicinin fayda fonksiyonundaki parametrelerin mevsimlere göre değişmesine izin vererek söz konusu mevsimselliği modellemeyi tercih etmiştir. Osborn (1988) modeline göre tüketim harcamaları entegre olmuş birinci derecede periyodik otoregresyon süreci izlemelidir ve bu model Hail (1978)'ın tesadüfi yürüyüş modelinin mevsimsel karşılığı olarak görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada özel nihai tüketim harcamalarının üç alt kalemini oluşturan gıda-içki harcamaları, yarı dayanıklı ve dayanıksız tüketim malı harcamaları ile hizmet harcamaları incelenerek Osborn (1988) modelinin veriye uygunluğu Türkiye örneğinde araştırılmıştır. Regresyon denklemlerinde mevsimsel deterministik trend değişkenlerinin olmadığı durumda tahmin sonuçlan açıkça Osborn (1988) modelini reddetmiştir. Buna karşılık, mevsimsel deterministik trend değişkenleri regresyon denklemlerine ilave edilip, uygun bir biçimde kısıtlandığında tahmin sonuçları incelenen seriye bağlı olarak farklılık göstermiştir. Bu durumda hizmet harcamaları için Osborn (1988) modelinin veri ile uyumlu olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Testing for seasonal rational expectations life cycle permanent income hypothesis

Quarterly observed consumption expenditures exhibit significant seasonality. Rather than remoing seasonality from data before econometric analysis, Osborn (1988) preferred to model seasonality by allowing parameters of consumer’s utility function to vary with respect to seasons. According to the Osborn (1988), model consumption expenditures should follow periodically integrated autoregression of order one and this model regarded as seasonal analogue of Hall(1978)’s random walk model. In this study, three subitems of private final consumption expenditures, namely food-drink expenditures, semi durable and nondurable goods expenditures and service expenditures, are analyzed to see whether data is consistent with the Osborn (1988) model for Turkish case. When there were no seasonal deterministic trends in regression equations, estimation results clearly rejected the Osborn (1988) model. However, after these terms were added to regression equations and restricted appropriately, estimation results have varied with respect to investigated series. In this case, The Osborn (1988) model was found to be consistent with Turkish data for service expenditures.

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