İRAN’DA RANT ÜRETİCİ POLİTİKALARIN GELİR DAĞILIMI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİNİN ETNİK, MEZHEPSEL VE BÖLGESEL ÖZELLİKLERE GÖRE İNCELENMESİ

Bu araştırmada İran’ın illeri etnik kökenlerine (Fars - etnik azınlık), mezheplerine (Şii - Sünni) vecoğrafi konumlarına (merkez - sınır) göre ikili kümelere bölünerek kümelerdeki farklı kesimler arasındakieşitsizliği etkileyen etmenler incelenmiştir. Bu doğrultuda yapay eğim değişkenleri içeren modeller, illerin2000-2015 yıllarına ait verileri kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, büyüme oranını,düşük resmi kur için ayrılan kaynaklar etkilemezken, ekonomik serbestlik olumlu yönde, enflasyon oranı vebütçe politikası olumsuz yönde etkilemektedir. Ayrıca, bütçe politikasının Fars ve Şii kesimleri gelir dağılımıaçısından diğerlerine göre daha olumsuz etkileyerek gelir eşitsizliğini azalttığı belirlenmiştir. Petrol ve doğalgazgelirlerindeki artışın ise tüm kesimlerin refah seviyelerinin artmasına yol açmakla birlikte, ayrıcalıklı olan Farsve Şii kesimlerin refah seviyelerini diğerlerine göre daha fazla yükselttiği ve dolayısıyla ayrıcalıklı gruplarınkaynaklardan daha fazla pay alacağı savının doğrulandığı gözlenmiştir. Ayrıca, elde edilen sonuçlar İran’dabüyüme ile başlangıç gelir düzeyi arasındaki ters yönlü ilişkiyi ortaya koyarak, neoklasik büyüme modellerininöngörülerini doğrulamaktadır.

Exploring the Impact of Rent Producing Policies on the Ethnic, Religion and Region-Based Income Distribution in Iran

This study examines the underlying factors of inequality between Persian and non-Persian, Shia and Sunni, and border and non-border province groups in Iran. To this end, data of provinces covering 2000-2015 period were used to estimate the models with slope dummies. According to the results, resources allocated to reevaluate domestic currency has no effect on growth rate, while growth rate is negatively affected by economic freedom and positively affected by inflation rate and budget policy. Furthermore, it has been determined that budget policy affects the Persian and Shia groups more negatively in terms of income distribution than others, reducing income inequality. While the increase in oil and natural gas revenues leads to rise in welfare levels of all groups, the privileged Persian and Shia groups increase their welfare levels more than the others, confirming the assertion that privileged groups receive more shares from the resources. In addition, the results confirm the predictions of neoclassical growth models, revealing the inverse relationship between growth and initial income level in Iran.

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