Siyasi ve Ekonomik Gelişmelerin BİST Yatırımcı Kararlarına Etkisi: Türkiye’den Kanıtlar

Bu çalışmanın amacı siyasi ve ekonomik gelişmelerin BİST yatırımcılarının mevcut yatırım kararları üzerinde etkili olup olmadığını belirlemektir. Çalışma sonuçlarına göre, yatırım tavsiyesi, seçim ve başkanlık tartışmaları ile ekonomik ve siyasi açıklamalar değişkenlerinin yatırımcıların yatırım kararları üzerindeki etkisini ölçen H1, H2 ve H4 hipotezleri kabul edilirken öz yeterlilik, borsanın durumunu değişkenlerini ölçen H3, H5, hipotezleri reddedilmiştir. Yatırımcıların hisse senedi yatırımları üzerinde bu üç değişkenin anlamlı bir etkisinin olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu üç değişkenden yatırımcıların yatırım kararlarını en fazla etkileyen ekonomik ve siyasi açıklamalar (0,432) değişkeni olmuş ardından seçim ve başkanlık tartışmalarının (0,226) üçüncü olarak ise yatırım tavsiyelerinin (0.130) olduğu anlaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Yatırımcı, Borsa, Davranışsal Finans, Seçimler, Siyasi

The Impact of Political and Economic Developments on Stock Investors Decisions: Evidence from Turkey

The aim of this study is to determine whether political and economic developments have an effect on the current investment decisions of BIST investors. According to the results of the study, H1, H2 and H4 hypotheses, which measure the effect of investment advice, election and presidential debates, and economic and political explanations on investors' investment decisions, were accepted, while H3, H5, hypotheses that measure the variables of self-efficacy and the state of the stock market were rejected. Among these three variables, it was seen that the economic and political explanations (0.432) affected the investment decisions of the investors the most, followed by the election and presidential debates (0.226). It was understood that investment recommendations affected the third place (0.130).

Keywords:

Investor, Stock Exchange, Behavioral Finance, Elections, Politic,

PDF

___

Aren, S. (2018), Davranışsal Finansa Kurumsal Bakış. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 13(3), 141-160.
Altunışık, R., Coşkun, R., Bayraktaroğlu, S. and Yıldırım, E. (2005), Sosyal bilimlerde araştırma yöntemleri: SPSS uygulamalı, 4. Baskı. İstanbul: Sakarya Yayıncılık.
Asteriou, D. and Siriopoulos, C. (2000), The role of political instability in stock market development and economic growth: The case of Greece. Economic Notes, 29(3), 355-374.
Baeckström, Y., Marsh, I. W., and Silvester, J. (2021), Variations in investment advice provision),A study of financial advisors of millionaire investors. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 188, 716-735.
Bagozzi, R. and Yi, Y. (1988), On the Evaluation of Structural Equation Models. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Sciences, 16, 74-94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02723327
Białkowski J, Gottschalk K, Wisniewski TP. (2008), Stock market volatility around national elections. Journal of Banking & Finance, 32(9), 1941-53.
Białkowski, G. and Wisniewski, P. (2008), Stock Market Volatility Around National Elections. Journal of Banking & Finance, 32(9), 1941-1953.
Birz, G. (2017), Stale Economic News, Media and the Stock Market. Journal of Economic Psychology, 61, 87–102 http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2136291
Birz, G., and Lott Jr, J. R. (2011), The effect of macroeconomic news on stock returns),New evidence from newspaper coverage. Journal of Banking & Finance, 35(11), 2791-2800.
Brenner, L., and Meyll, T. (2020), Robo-advisors),A substitute for human financial advice?. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 25, 100275.
Chalmers, J., and Reuter, J. (2020), Is conflicted investment advice better than no advice?. Journal of Financial Economics, 138(2), 366-387.
Chia, R., and Jiun, C. (2018), The effect of political elections on stock market volatility in Malaysia. International Journal of Engineering & Technology, 7(3), 114-119.
Colón-De-Armas, C., Rodriguez, J., and Romero, H. (2017), Investor sentiment and US presidential elections. Review of Behavioral Finance. 9(3), 227-241 DOI 10.1108/RBF-02-2016-0003 De Bondt, W., Mayoral, R. M., and Vallelado, E. (2013), Behavioral decision-making in finance),An overview and assessment of selected research. Spanish Journal of Finance and Accounting/Revista Española de Financiación y Contabilidad, 42(157), 99-118 (10.1080/02102412.2013.10779742)
Doll, W., Xia, W. and Torkzadeh, G. (1994), A confirmatory factor analysis of the end-user computing satisfaction instrument. MIS Quarterly, 18(4), 453-461.
Döpke, J., and Pierdzioch, C. (2006), Politics and The Stock Market),Evidence from Germany. European Journal of Political Economy, 22(4), 925-943.
Ergör, Z. B. (2017), Yatırımcı Davranışları ve Karar Vermede Çerçeveleme Etkisi), Türkiye’de Yaşayan Karar Vericiler Üzerine Bir Çalışma. Bankacılık ve Sigortacılık Araştırmaları Dergisi, 2(11), 8-20.
Eser, R. and Toıgonbaeva, D. (2011), Psikoloji ve İktisadın Birleşimi Olarak, Davranışsal İktisat. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 6(1), 287-321.
Fama, E. F. (1970), Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417.
Fang, Y., Yuan, J., Yang, J. J., and Ying, S. (2022), Crash-based quantitative trading strategies. Perspective of behavioral finance. Finance Research Letters, 45, 102185.
Flores, S. A. M., and Vieira, K. M. (2014), Propensity toward indebtedness),An analysis using behavioral factors. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 3, 1-10.
Fornell, C. and Larcker, D. F. (1981), Evaluating structural equation models with unobservable variables and measurement error. Journal of Marketing Research, 18(1), 39-50.
Gartner, M. W, and Wellershoff, K. W. (1995), Is there an election cycle in american stock returns? International Review of Economics & Finance, 4(4), 387-410.
Gültekin, M., & Umutlu, M. (2016), Çesitli yatirimci gruplarının hisse senedi net alım işlem hacimleri ve pazar getirisi arasindaki etkileşim (Interaction between Equity Trading of Various Investor Types and Market Return). Ege Academic Review, 16(3), 451-460.
Gürbüz, S., and Şahin, F. (2017), Sosyal bilimlerde araştırma yöntemleri. Ankara: Seçkin Yayıncılık.
Hair, Jr, J. F., Black, W. C., Babin, B. J., and Anderson, R. E. (2010). Multivariate data analysis. 7. Baskı. Prentice Hall.
Hlobil, T. M., and Van Leuvensteijn, M. (2020), Combining investment advice and asset management. Economics Letters, 197, 109627.
Hopland, A. O., Matsen, E., and Strøm, B. (2016), Income and choice under risk. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 12, 55-64.
Igbaria, M., Guimaraes, T., and Davis, G. B. (1995), Testing the determinants of microcomputer usage via a structural equation model. Journal of management information systems, 11(4), 87-114.
Jiun, R.C.C. (2018), The Effect of Political Elections on Stock Market Volatility in Malaysia. International Journal of Engineering & Technology, 7(3), 114-119.
Kahneman, D. (2011), Hızlı ve Yavaş Düşünme, O.Ç. Deniztekin & F.N. Deniztekin (Çev.), 7. Baskı, İstanbul: Varlık Yayınları.
Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A. (1979), Prospect theory),An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrical Journal of the Econometric Society, 47(2), 263-291.
Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A. (2013), Choices, values, and frames. In Handbook of the fundamentals of financial decision making: Part I (pp. 269-278).
Kostopoulos, D., Meyer, S., and Uhr, C. (2022), Ambiguity about volatility and investor behavior. Journal of Financial Economics, 145(1), 277-296.
Kumari, J., and Mahakud, J. (2015), Does investor sentiment predict the asset volatility? Evidence from emerging stock market India. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 8, 25-39.
Lean, H. (2010), Political general election ad stock performance),The Malaysian evidence. Research in Mathematics and Economics Penang: Universiti Sains Malaysia, 111:120.
Li, K. (2018), Reaction to news in the Chinese stock market: A study on Xiong’an New Area Strategy. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 19, 36-38.
Lobo, B. J. (1999), Jump risk in the US stock market: Evidence using political information. Review of Financial Economics, 8(2), 149-63.
Medovikov, I. (2016), When does the stock market listen to economic news? New evidence from copulas and news wires. Journal of Banking & Finance, 65(C), 27-40.
Mishra P. and Datta, B. (2011), Perpetual asset management of customer-based brand equity-ThePAM evaluator. Current Research Journal of Social Science, 3(1), 34-43.
Nippani, S., and Arize, A. C. (2005), US presidential election impact on Canadian and Mexican stock markets. Journal of Economics and Finance, 29(2), 271-9.
Pástor, Ľ., and Veronesi, P. (2013), Political uncertainty and risk premia. Journal of financial Economics, 110(3), 520-545.
Phan, T. N. T., Bertrand, P., Phan, H. H., and Vo, X. V. (2021), The role of investor behavior in emerging stock markets: Evidence from Vietnam. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance.
Pilatin, A. (2019), Behavioural Finance and Anomalies: A Theoretical Framework. Selected Writings on Financial and Economical Behaviours in the New Economy, (Ed. S.E. Pelenk), 29-44.
Pilatin, A. (2022), In the context of behavioral finance, do investor characteristics affect stock holding period?. KAÜİİBFD, 13(25), 244-266.
Reiter-Gavish, L., Qadan, M., and Yagil, J. (2021), Financial advice: Who Exactly Follows It?. Research in Economics, 75(3), 244-258.
Schmid, A. A. (2004), Conflict and Cooperation),Institutional and Behavioral Economics, 1. Baskı, UK: Blackwell Publishing.
Sipahi, B., Yurtkoru, E. S., and Cinko, M. (2008), Sosyal Bilimlerde SPSS’le Veri Analizi., 2. Baskı, İstanbul: Beta Yayınevi.
Suchanek, M. (2021), The dark triad and investment behavior. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 29, 100457.
Tabachnick, BG., Fidell, LS. and Ullman, JB. (2007), Using multivariate statistics, Boston, MA: Pearson.
Thaler, R. (1999), Mental Accounting Matters. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12(3), 183-206.
Torun, T., and İlgün, M. F. (2018), Finansal gelişme üzerinde politik faktörlerin etkisi),Az gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelere yönelik bir analiz. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 13(3), 181-204.
Voghouei, H. Azali, M. and Law, S.H. (2011), Does The Political Institution Matter for Financial Development?. Economic Papers: A Journal of Applied Economics and Policy, 30(1), 77-98.
Wang Y-H, and Lin C-T. (2009), The political uncertainty and stock market behavior in emerging democracy: the case of Taiwan. Quality & Quantity, 43(2), 237-48.
Wong W-K., and McAleer, M. (2009), Mapping the Presidential Election Cycle in US stock markets. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 79(11), 3267-77.
Yalçıner, K., Atan, M., & Boztosun, D. (2005), Finansal oranlarla hisse senedi getirileri arasındaki ilişki. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, 27, 176-187.
Yılmaz, Y., and Elmas, B. (2019), Politik Seçim Tarihleri Etrafında Anormal Getiri Hareketleri),Borsa İstanbul Örneği. Ekev Akademi Dergisi, 23(80), 569-581.
Youssef, M., and Mokni, K. (2018), On the effect of herding behavior on dependence structure between stock markets: Evidence from GCC countries. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 20, 52-63.
Yurttadur, M., and Ozcelik, H. (2019), Evaluation of the financial investment preferences of individual investors from behavioral finance: The case of Istanbul. Procedia Computer Science, 158, 761-765.