MSCI Dokuz Piyasa Ekonomisinde Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Markov Rejim Değişim Modeli İle Analizi

Finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki akademik dünyada çok yoğun tartışılan ve ampirik olarak araştırılan konulardan birisidir. Bu makalenin esas amacı ekonomik büyüme ve finansal gelişme arasındaki ilişkiyi yıllık veri ve doğrusal olmayan bir teknik olan Markov Rejim Değişim Modeli ile Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) dokuz piyasa ekonomisinde (Bulgaristan, Hırvatistan, Estonya, Kazakistan, Litvanya, Romanya, Sırbistan, Slovenya ve Ukrayna) incelemektir. Bu makale araştırması diğer makalelerden farklılaşmakta ve hâlihazırdaki literatüre katkı sağlamaktadır, çünkü i) bu makale sabitte ve ekonomik büyüme fonksiyonunun parametrelerindeki potansiyel kaymaları doğrusal olmayan teknik yardımıyla modeldeki kaymalar endojen olarak belirtilecek şekilde dikkate almaktadır, ii) bu araştırma diğer doğrusal teknikle uygulayan makalelere kıyasla ekonomik büyümenin doğrusal olmayan fonksiyonunu kullanmaktadır ve iii) bu çalışma ele alınan ülkeler ve zaman dönemi açısından farklıdır. Bulgulara gelince kurulan sekiz modelin çoğunda, finansal gelişme büyüme vekili 1, ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz etkilemektedir. Finansal gelişme büyüme vekili 2 durumunda, ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi net değildir; bazı modellerde sonuç olumsuz, bazılarında ise sonuç olumludur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme, MSCI Piyasa Ekonomileri

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