Sistemik ve İç Faktörler Işığında Değişen Türk Dış Politikası: Venezuela Örneği

Bu çalışma, Türk Dış Politikası’nda dönüşüm bağlamında Türkiye-Venezuela ilişkilerinin gelişimini Neoklasik Realist kuram ile açıklamayı hedeflemiştir. Türkiye’nin Venezuela politikası, ABD’nin Venezuela’ya yaptırımlar uyguladığı bir dönemde gerçekleşmesi sebebiyle diğer dış politika adımlarından ayrışmaktadır. Bu kapsamda, Soğuk Savaş sonrası sistem içindeki stratejik çevrenin izin verici karakteri ve Türkiye’nin artan göreli gücü, Türkiye'nin ABD’ye rağmen siyaset izlemesinin önünü açan temel sistemik faktörler olarak ele alınmıştır. İç faktörler bağlamında, 2002 yılından sonra Türkiye iç siyasetindeki değişimler, Türk toplumunda uzun yıllardır süregelen ABD karşıtlığı, ABD ve Türkiye’nin Suriye krizindeki çelişen politikaları ile ABD’nin 15 Temmuz 2016 darbe girişimi sonrası politikasının Türkiye’deki lider ve toplum algısına etkisi irdelenmiştir. Son olarak, Türkiye-Venezuela ilişkileri özelinde 2016 yılındaki sıçramayı açıklamak adına, iki ülkede de yaşanan darbe/yönetim değiştirme girişimlerinin getirdiği empati ile demokratik gerileme süreçlerinin yarattığı yakınlaşma üzerinde durulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Türkiye, Venezuela, Dış Politika Analizi, Neoklasik Realizm, Türk Dış Politikası

Changing Turkish Foreign Policy in the Light of Systemic and Domestic Factors: The Case of Venezuela

This study aims to explain the development of Turkey’s relations with Venezuela in the context of the transformation of Turkish Foreign Policy through the lens of Neoclassical Realist theory. Turkey’s Venezuela policy differ from other foreign policy steps as it takes place at a time when the USA imposes sanctions on Venezuela. In this context, Turkey’s growing relative power and the permissive character of the strategic environment within the system since the end of the Cold War are considered as the main systemic factors that paved the way for Turkey to follow politics despite the USA. In the context of domestic factors, such as changes in Turkey’s domestic politics after 2002, the long-standing anti-US sentiment in Turkish society, the USA’s policies regarding July 15, 2016, coup attempt and conflicting policies of the USA and Turkey in the Syrian Crisis that affect society and leader perception were emphasized. Finally, in order to explain the recent development in the relations with Venezuela after 2016, the empathy brought by the coup/administrative change attempts in both countries and the rapprochement created by the democratic backsliding processes in both countries were emphasized.

Keywords:

Turkey, Venezuela, Foreign Policy Analysis, Neoclassical Realism, Turkish Foreign Policy,

PDF

___

Agestam, Oscar (2018), The Patterns of Democratic Backsliding: A Systematic Comparison of Hungary, Turkey and Venezuela (Yüksek Lisans Tezi) (‎Sweden: Södertörns University, School of Social Sciences, Political Science).
Akay, Beyhan (2018), “Türkiye’nin Latin Amerika ve Karayipler ile Ekonomik İlişkileri”, Ermağan, İsmail (Der.), Dünya Siyasetinde Latin Amerika-2 (Ankara: Nobel): 539-556.
Balcı, Ali (2018), Türkiye Dış Politikası: İlkeler, Aktörler ve Uygulamalar, 3. Baskı (İstanbul: Alfa Yayınları).
Balcı, Ali (2019), “A Three-level Analysis of Turkey’s Crisis with the US-led Order”, Insight Turkey, 21 (4): 13-24.
Bayraktar, Fatih (2018), Why is Democracy in Decline: Democratic Backsliding in Venezuela and Turkey (Yüksek Lisans Tezi) (US: University of Central Florida).
BBC (2021), “ABD Dışişleri’nden Soylu’nun İddiasına Yanıt”, https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-dunya-55944373 (26.01.2022).
Bellinger, Nisha ve Byunghwan Son (2019), “Is authoritarianism bad for the economy? Ask Venezuela – or Hungary or Turkey”, https://theconversation.com/is-authoritarianism-bad-for-the-economy-ask-venezuela-or-hungary-or-turkey-106749 (22.02.2022).
Bilgiç, Ü. Tuba (2015), “The Roots of Anti-Americanism in Turkey 1945-1960”, Bilig, 72: 251-280.
Christensen, J. Thomas (1996), Useful Adversaries: Grand Strategy, Domestic Mobilization and Sino-American Conflict: 1947-1958 (E-book: Princeton University Press).
Davutoğlu, Ahmet (2008), “Turkey’s New Foreign Policy Vision: An Assessment of 2007”, Insight Turkey, 10 (1): 77-96.
Daniel, Frank J. (2016), “Maduro Says any Venezuela Coup Bid Would Meet Tougher Reaction than Turkey’s”, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-maduro-turkey/maduro-says-any-venezuela-coup-bid-would-meet-tougher-reaction-than-turkeys-idUSKCN10U1NU (18.05.2021).
DEIK (2018), “Venezuela-Türkiye İş Forumu Karakas’da Gerçekleşti”, https://www.deik.org.tr/basin-aciklamalari-venezuela-turkiye-is-forumu-karakas-da-gerceklesti (08.05.2021).
Dışişleri Bakanlığı Tarihçesi (1992), http://diad.mfa.gov.tr/diad/tarihce/1992-2.pdf (25.04.2021).
Dışişleri Bakanlığı Tarihçesi (1998), http://diad.mfa.gov.tr/diad/tarihce/1998-2.pdf (25.04.2021).
Dışişleri Bakanlığı Tarihçesi (1999), http://diad.mfa.gov.tr/diad/tarihce/1999-2.pdf (25.04.2021).
Dışişleri Bakanlığı (2008), https://www.mfa.gov.tr/guney-ortak-pazari.tr.mfa (16.02.2022).
Dışişleri Bakanlığı (2010), https://www.mfa.gov.tr/sayin-bakanimizin-venezuela-disisleri-bakani-nicolas-maduro-moros-ile-yaptigi-ortak-basin-toplantisi-metni.tr.mfa (15.01.2022).
Dışişleri Bakanlığı (2020), https://www.mfa.gov.tr/sayin-bakanimizin-venezuela-yi-ziyareti.tr.mfa (15.01.2022).
Dışişleri Bakanlığı (2021a), https://www.mfa.gov.tr/relations-between-turkey-venezuela.en.mfa (18.04.2021).
Dışişleri Bakanlığı (2021b), https://www.mfa.gov.tr/i_turkey_s-relations-with-the-latin-american-and-the-caribbean-countries.en.mfa (19.04.2021).
Dışişleri Bakanlığı (2018), https://www.mfa.gov.tr/disisleri-bakani-mevlut-cavusoglu-nun-venezuela-ziyareti_en.en.mfa (25.04.2021).
Duke Today (2017), “Authoritarian Backlash: How Turkey and Venezuela Differ”, https://today.duke.edu/2017/09/authoritarian-backlash-how-turkey-and-venezuela-differ (20.02.2022).
Ellner, Steve (2008), “Rethinking Venezuelan Politics: Class, Conflict and the Chavez Phenomenon”, Lynne Rienner Publishers.
Esen, Berk (2020), “Türkiye’deki Rekabetçi Otoriter Rejim”, Birikim, Haziran-Temmuz 374-375: 158-175.
Esen, Berk (2021), “Competitive Authoritarianism in Turkey under the AKP Rule”, Jongerden Jooost (Der.), The Routledge Handbook on Contemporary Turkey (London: Routledge): 153-163.
Esen, Berk ve Başar Baysal (2022), “AKP Döneminde Bir Siyasi Araç Olarak Güvenlikleştirme ve Güvenlik Dışılaştırma”, Kaygusuz, Özlem ve Behlül Özkan (Der.), Türkiye’nin Ulusal Güvenlik Devleti: Paradigma, Kurumlar, Siyasetler ve Söylemler (Ankara: İletişim Yayınları).
EIU (2021), “Democracy Index 2020: In Sickness and in health”, https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2020 (20.10.2021).
EIU (2020), “Democracy Index 2019: A year of Democratic Setbacks and Popular Protest”. https://www.in.gr/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Democracy-Index-2019.pdf (20.10.2021).
Giacalone, Rita (2013), “Venezuealan Foreign Policy: Petro-Politics and Paradigm Change”, Beasley, K.Ryan, Juliet Kaarbo, Jeffrey S. Lantis ve Michael T. Snarr (Der.), Foreign Policy in Comparative Perspective: Domestic and International Influences on State Behavior, Second Edition (SAGE Publications): 290-308.
Gobierno Bolivariano de Venezuela (2018), “Venezuela y Turquia firman acuerdos para fortalecer lazos de cooperación”, http://www.minpet.gob.ve/index.php/es-es/comunicaciones/noticias-comunicaciones/29-noticias-2018/619-venezuela-y-turquia-firman-acuerdos-para-fortalecer-lazos-de-cooperacion (10.05.2021).
Government of Canada (2021), “Statement from the Lima Group”, https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/international_relations-relations_internationales/latin_america-amerique_latine/2021-01-05-lima_group-groupe_lima.aspx?lang=eng (21.10.2021).
Kaplan, Enes (2019), “Sandıktan çıkana saygı duyacaksınız”, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/gunun-basliklari/cumhurbaskani-erdogan-sandiktan-cikana-saygi-duyacaksiniz/1373975 (15.04.2021).
Karel, Irmak Ekin (2019), “Turkish Foreign Policy in Venezuela: What Factors Can Explain Turkey’s Sudden and Accelerated Rapprochement with Venezuela in the Last Years?”, Relaciones Internacionales, 92 (1): 1-29.
Katzenstein, Peter J. ve Robert O. Keohane (2007), “Varieties of Anti-Americanism: A Framework for Anaylsis”, Katzenstein, Peter J. ve Robert O. Keohane (Der.), Anti-Americanism in World Politics (Cornell University Press): 9-38.
Kenasari, Muhammed B (2016), “Türkiye Gülen'in iadesi için ABD'ye 85 kutu belge gönderdi”, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/15-temmuz-darbe-girisimi/turkiye-gulenin-iadesi-icin-abdye-85-kutu-belge-gonderdi/621862 (15.04.2021).
Keyman, Fuat E. (2009), “Turkish Foreign Policy in the Era of Global Turmoil”, SETA Policy Brief, December 39: 3-15.
Kadir Has Üniversitesi (2017), “Türk Dış Politikası Kamuoyu Algıları Araştırması” https://www.khas.edu.tr/sites/khas.edu.tr/files/inline-files/TDP-2017_vfinal.pdf (19.01.2022).
Kirişci, Kemal ve Aslı Aydıntaşbaş (2017) “The United States and Turkey: Friends, Enemies, or Only Interests”, Turkey Project Policy Paper 12, (Brookings).
Kınık, Hülya (2021), “Turkey’s Opening to Latin America: The Case of Venezuela”, The Journal of Academic Social Science Studies, 14 (87): 327-340.
Kızıl, Nurbanu (2021), “Turkey uses soft power to keep in touch with Latin America: Experts”, https://dailysabah.com/politics/news-analysis/turkey-uses-soft-power-to-keep-in-touch-with-latin-america-experts (16.02.2022).
Levitsky, Steven ve Lucan A. Way (2010), Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes After the Cold War (New York: Cambridge University Press).
Levitsky, Steven ve Daniel Ziblatt (2018), How Democracies Die (New York: Crown Publishing).
Maerz, Seraphine F., Anna Lührmann, Sebastian Hellmeier, Sandra Grahn ve Staffan I. Lindberg (2020), “State of the World 2019: Autocratization Surges-Resistance Grows”, Democratization, DOI: 10.1080/13510347.2020.1758670
McLaughlin, Eliott C. Ve Ray Sanchez (2019), “Maduro Says a US-led ‘Coup’ is Behind the Political Upheaval in Venezuela’, https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/27/americas/venezuela-maduro-us-coup-accusation/index.html (07.05.2021).
Merke, Federico, Oliver Stuenkel ve Andreas E. Feldmann (2021), “Reimagining Regional Governance in Latin America” Carnegie:Working Paper, June. https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Merke_Stuenkel_and_Feldman_Latin_America.pdf (22.10.2021).
Milli Gazete (2019) “Ermeni Soykırımı'nı tanıyan Venezuela'ya Türkiye'den Tepki”, https://milligazete.com.tr/haber/1795316/ermeni-soykirimini-taniyan-venezuelaya-turkiyeden-tepki (23.02.2022).
NewsTurkish (2011), “Turkey to Cooperate with Venezuela on Energy,says Minister”, https://newsturkish.com/turkey-to-cooperate-with-venezuela-on-energy-2011-01-24.html (23.01.2022).
O’connor, Brendon (2020), Anti-Americanism and American Exceptionalism: Prejudice and Pride about the USA (New York: Routledge).
Öner, Imdat (2020), “Turkey and Venezuela: An Alliance of Convenience”, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/turkey-and-venezuela-alliance-convenience (21.02.2022).
Önsoy, Murat (2017), “Latin America-Turkey Relations: Reaching Out to Distant Shores of the Western Hemisphere”, Ercan G. Pınar (Der.), Turkish Foreign Policy: International Relations, Legality and Global Reach (Palgrave Macmillan): 237-254.
Örnek, Serdar ve Baransel Mızrak (2015), “ Türkiye-Latin Amerika İlişkileri: Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Enerji”, Çomak, Hasret, Caner Sancaktar ve Zafer Yıldırım (Der.), Enerji Diplomasisi (İstanbul: BETA Yayınları): 551-567.
Özkan, Mehmet (2011), “Turkey-Brazil Involvement in Iranian Nuclear Issue: What Is the Big Deal?”, Strategic Analysis, 35 (1): 26-30.
Pearson, Robert (2017), “Authoritarian Backlash: A Comparison of Turkey & Venezuela”, https://americandiplomacy.web.unc.edu/2017/10/authoritarian-backlash-a-comparison-of-turkey-venezuela/ (25.02.2022).
POMED (2016), “U.S. Statements on Turkey’s Attempted Coup: A Timeline”, https://pomed.org/u-s-statements-on-turkeys-attempted-coup-a-timeline (20.03.2021) Ripsman, Norrin M., Jeffrey W. Taliaferro ve Steven E. Lobell (2016), Neoclassical Realist Theory of International Politics (New York: Oxford University Press).
Rose, Gideon (1998), “Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy”, World Politics, 51 (1): 144-172.
Schweller, Randall L. (2004), “Unanswered Threats: A Neoclassical Realist Theory of Underbalancing”, International Security, 29 (2): 159-201.
Seelke, Clare R. (2018), “Venezuela’s 2018 Presidential Elections”, https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/IN10902.pdf (18.05.2021).
Orçun, Selçuk (2016), “Strong presidents and weak institutions: populism in Turkey, Venezuela and Ecuador”, Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 16 (4): 571-589.
Seren, Merve (2021), “Genişleme ve Yükseliş: 1974’ten Günümüze Türk Savunma Sanayii”, Pirinççi, Ferhat ve Murat Yeşiltaş (Der.), Savunma Politikalarına Giriş (SETA Yayınları): 193-222.
Singer, David J. (1961), “The Level of Analysis Problem in International Relations”, World Politics, 14 (1): 77-92.
Sözen, Ahmet (2010), “A Paradigm Shift in Turkish Foreign Policy: Transition and Challanges”, Turkish Studies, 11 (1): 103-123.
Sputniknews (2016), “Çavuşoğlu: Darbe girişimi sonrası en güçlü destek aldığımız ülkelerden biri Rusya”, https://tr.sputniknews.com/20160723/cavusoglu-darbe-girisimi-samsun-1024047150.html (20.01.2022).
Sputniknews (2018), “Erdoğan, Maduro’yla bir araya geldi”, https://tr.sputniknews.com/20181204/erdogan-maduro-kiminle-dostluk-kuracagimiza-bir-yerlerden-izin-alarak-karar-1036454363.html (20.01.2022).
Sputniknews (2019), “Kalın, Erdoğan Maduro’ya Kardeşim Dik Dur Dedi” https://tr.sputniknews.com/20190124/kalin-erdogan-maduro-kardesim-dik-dur-yanindayiz-dedi-1037260916.html (10.05.2021).
Tansey, Oisin, Kevin Koehler ve Alexander Schmotz (2017), “Ties to the Rest:Autocratic Linkages and Regime Survival”, Comparative Political Studies, 50 (9): 1221-1254.
TCCB (2018), https://www.tccb.gov.tr/haberler/410/99956/-venezuela-yla-iliskilerimizi-ileriye-tasimakta-kararliyiz- (19.02.2022).
Tekin, Segah (2018), Tahran Deklarasyonu ve Sonrası: Türkiye-Brezilya Küresel Ortaklığın Yükselişi ve Gerileyişi”, Akademik Bakış, 11(23).
Ticaret Bakanlığı (2020), https://ticaret.gov.tr/yurtdisi-teskilati/guney-amerika/venezuela/ikili-anlasmalar/ticaretin-gelistirilmesi-anlasmasi (21.10.2021).
Topal, Dilek Karadeniz (2021), “Latin Amerika’da İstikrar Sorunu: Venezuela Örneği”, Protokol: Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Stratejik Araştırma Merkezi Dergisi, 2 (2): 12-23.
TUİK (2020), “Venezuela Ülke Raporu: Türkiye İçin Fırsatlar”, https://ticaret.gov.tr/data/60abfccb13b8765574d9eb3f/Venezuela%20%C3%9Clke%20Raporu/Venezuela%20%C3%9Clke%20Raporu-2020.docx (18.05.2021).
Türkmen, Füsun (2010), “Anti-Americanism as a Default Ideology of Opposition:Turkey as a Case Study”, Turkish Studies, 11 (3): 329-345.
Viotti, Paul R., ve Mark V. Kauppi (2012), International Relations Theory, 5th Edition (UK: Pearson Education).
Waltz, Kenneth N. (2001), Man, the State, and War: A Theoretical Analysis (Columbia: Columbia University Press).
World Bank (2021), “GDP (current US$)- Turkey”, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?view=chart (10.20.2021).
Yazıcıoğlu, Yıldız (2019), “Türkiye ve Venezuela ‘Ekonomik Dayanışma’ Mesajı Verdi”, https://amerikaninsesi.com/a/turkiye-ve-venuzuela-ekonomik-dayanisma-mesaji-verdi/4857003.html (15.02.2022).
Yetim, Mustafa (2019), “Liberal Temelde Kurumsallaşan Türkiye-Latin Amerika İlişkileri”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 19 (1): 167-178.
Yıldız, Furkan Burcu (2019), Authoritarianism Both in Venezuela and Turkey (Yüksek Lisans Tezi) (Illinois, US: Eastern Illinois University Department of Political Science).
Zakaria, Fareed (1999), From Wealth to Power: the Unusual Origins of America’s World Role (Ebook: Princeton University Press).
Zilla, Claudia (2019), “Venezuela, the region and the World: Steps for a Possible Way out the Crisis”, SWP Comment, No: 19. https://swpberlin.org/publications/products/comments/2019C19_zll.pdf (19.10.2021).
Zorlu, Faruk (2019), “Erdogan Voices Support for Venezuelan President Maduro”, https://aa.com.tr/en/americas/erdogan-voices-support-for-venezuelan-president-maduro/1373130 (13.02.2022).
Wiltse, Evren Çelik (2010), “Brezilya ve Türkiye: Küresel Dünyanın Yükselen Devletleri”, Dış Politika Forumu Araştırma Raporu, http://dispolitikaforumu.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Brezilya-ve-Turkiye.pdf (15.02.2022).