Kıymetli Madenlerin Range-Based Realized Volatilite Serileri Arasındaki Asimetrik İlişkiler

Finansal piyasalarda oluşan yüksek oynaklık ve bulaşma etkisi paniği yatırımcıların risklerini artırmaktadır. Böylece yatırımcılar artan riskten korunmak için portföylerinde yer alabilecek alternatif enstrümanları düşünmeye başlamış ve bu noktada kıymetli madenler güvenli liman olarak görülmeye başlanmıştır. Kıymetli madenlerin diğer finansal varlıklar ve piyasalarla olan ilişkisi önemli olduğu kadar birbirleriyle olan ilişkisi de oldukça önemli ve araştırılması gereken bir konudur. Bu amaçla kıymetli madenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Garman-Klass (1980) range-based realized volatilite serileri kullanılarak Hacker ve Hatemi-J Boostrap (2006) Nedensellik testinin yanı sıra asimetrik ilişkilerin de görülebilmesi için Hatemi-J (2012) Asimetrik Nedensellik testi ile analiz edilmiştir. Analizler sonucunda değişkenler arasında çeşitli nedensellik ilişkileri bulunmuştur. Ulaşılan en önemli sonuç ise altının gümüşle sınırlı bir ilişkisinin bulunduğu ve platin, paladyumla herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmadığı için altının oluşturulacak portföylerde daha fazla bulundurulabileceği ve halen yatırım aracı olarak güvenli liman olma özelliğini koruduğudur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Kıymetli madenler, Garman-Klass (1980) Range-Based Realized Volatilite, Hacker ve Hatemi-J Boostrap (2006) Nedensellik, Hatemi-J (2012) Asimetrik Nedensellik

Assymetric Relations Between Range-Based Realized Volatility Series of Precious Metals

High volatility and contagion effect panic in financial markets increase the risks of investors. Thus, investors started to consider alternative instruments that could be included in their portfolios in order to be protected from the increasing risk, and at this point, precious metals began to be seen as a safe haven. The relationship of precious metals with other financial assets and markets is as important as their relationship with each other and is a subject that needs to be investigated. For this purpose, the causality relationship between precious metals was analyzed using the Garman-Klass (1980) range-based realized volatility series, as well as the Hacker and Hatemi-J Boostrap (2006) Causality test, in order to see the asymmetrical relationships as well as the Hatemi-J (2012) Asymmetric Causality test. As a result of the analysis, various causality relationships were found between the variables. In particular, the copper variable has a reciprocal causality relationship with all of the gold, silver, palladium, and platinum variables. The most important conclusion reached is that gold has a limited relationship with silver and since there is no causal relationship with platinum and palladium, gold can be kept more in portfolios to be formed and it still remains a safe haven as an investment tool.

Keywords:

Precious metals, Garman-Klass (1980) Range-Based Realized Volatility, Hacker and Hatemi-J Boostrap (2006) Causality, Hatemi-J (2012) Asymmetric Causality,

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