GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERDE CARİ AÇIKLARIN SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Cari açıklar, bir ekonomideki en önemli göstergelerden biridir ve bu açıkların sürdürülemez boyutlara ulaşması ekonomik krizlere neden olmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı 5 gelişmekte olan ülkenin (Brezilya, Hindistan, Malezya, Meksika ve Türkiye) 1970-2014 dönemindeki ihracat ve ithalat verileri kullanılarak bu ülkelerdeki cari açıkların sürdürülebilirliğini test etmektir. Cari açıkların sürdürülebilirliği, dönemlerarası bütçe kısıtı altında yatay kesit bağımlılığı dikkate alan panel birim kök ve panel eşbütünleşme testleri ile ortalama grup tahmincisi yöntemleriyle analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre söz konusu ülkelerin tümünde ihracat ve ithalat arasında uzun dönemli eşbütünleşme ilişkisi vardır. Ayrıca sonuçlar cari açıkların uzun dönemde Malezya ve Türkiye için güçlü formda, Hindistan ve Meksika için ise zayıf formda sürdürülebilir olduğunu göstermektedir. Diğer taraftan kısa dönemde ise tüm ülkeler için cari açıklar zayıf formda sürdürülebilirdir

CURRENT ACCOUNT SUSTAINABILITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

The current account is one of the main indicators of an economy and the unsustainable current account deficits cause the economic crises. The purpose of this paper is to test the current account sustainability of 5 developing countries (Brazil, India, Malaysia, Mexico and Turkey) over the period 1970 to 2014 by using export and import data. Sustainability of current accounts for these countries is analyzed under intertemporal budget constraint approach by performing panel unit root and panel cointegration which considered the cross-sectional dependence and mean group estimation. The results show that there is a long term cointegration between export and import for all countries. Furthermore the results show that in the long term current deficits are weak sustainable for India and Mexico, strong sustainable for Turkey and Malaysia. On the other hand in the short term current deficits are weak sustainable for all countries

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