FORWARD GUIDENCE AS A SEPARATE UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY TOOL1

2008 Finansal krizinin ardından gelişmiş ülke merkez bankaları tarafından geleneksel para politikası aracı olarak kullanılan kısa vadeli faiz oranları sıfıra yakın bir düzeye indirilmiştir. Ayrıca geleneksel olmayan para politikası araçları da kullanılmaya başlanmıştır. Bu doğrultuda gelişmiş ülke merkez bankaları tarafından uygulanan politikalardan biri de sözle yönlendirme politikasıdır. Politikanın amacı merkez bankasının politika oranlarının gelecekteki seyrine ilişkin sinyal vermektir. Bu politika her ne kadar finansal krizden önceki dönemde bazı merkez bankaları tarafından kullanılmış olsa da, finansal krizin ardından aktif bir şekilde kullanılmaya başlanmıştır. Çalışmanın amacı, sözle yönlendirme politikasının faiz oranlarının sıfır olduğu bir düzeyde kullanılmasının değerlendirmesini yapmaktır. Çalışmada gelişmiş ülkelerin uyguladıkları sözle yönlendirme politikası literatürdeki yaygın sınıflandırmaya paralel olarak üçe ayrılarak incelenmiştir. Bu sınıflandırmaya paralel olarak öncelikle finansal krizden önce merkez bankalarının sözle yönlendirme politikaları üzerinde durulmuş, ardından krizden sonraki dönemde uyguladıkları söze yönlendirme politikaları ayrıntılı olarak ele alınmıştır. Son olarak bu politikanın para politikasının bir aracı olarak kullanılıp kullanılmayacağı tartışılmıştır.

GELENEKSEL OLMAYAN BİR PARA POLİTİKASI ARACI OLARAK SÖZLE YÖNLENDİRME

In the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008, short-term interest rates used as a conventional monetary policy tool were lowered to zero by the central banks of the developed countries. Unconventional monetary policy tools were also adopted. One example of these unconventional monetary policy tools is forward guidance. The aim of forward guidance is to signal the future policy actions of central banks. Although forward guidance was used by some central banks before the financial crisis, it became more common in the aftermath of the crisis. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the policy of forward guidance adopted when interest rates are at or near zero, or in other words when there is zero lower bound. In this study, the policy of forward guidance adopted by developed countries is analyzed under three categories, which is in line with the classification commonly adopted in the literature. In accordance with this classification, the study will first focus on forward guidance adopted by central banks before the financial crisis, followed by the detailed analysis of the policy adopted in the aftermath of the crisis. Finally, it discusses whether this policy can be used as a monetary policy tool.

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