Denge Döviz Kurundan Sapma ve Sapmanın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Feer Yaklaşımı

Ülkelerin ticaret hacmi ve sermaye akışkanlığının belirleyicilerinin başında şüphesiz kinominal döviz kuru gelmektedir. Paranın reel satın alma gücü ile ifade edilmesinde ise reel dövizkuru kavramı kullanılmaktadır. Buna ek olarak ise, sadece gerçekleşen reel döviz kuru ele alınarakyapılan değerlendirmeler yeterli olmamakla birlikte, iktisadi dinamiklerin de dikkate alındığı dengedöviz kuru hesaplanması da gerekmektedir. Gerçekleşen reel döviz kuru ile denge döviz kuruarasındaki sapma ekonomik açıdan orta ve uzun dönemde ekonomik büyüme ile ilgili bir bilgivermektedir. Bu bilgiler ışığında, reel döviz kuru ve denge düzeyinden sapmanın ekonomikperformans üzerindeki etkisinin analiz edilme ihtiyacı doğmaktadır.Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, denge döviz kuru çeşitleri ve denge döviz kuru hesaplamalarıkonusunda süregelen tartışmalara yapısal kırılmalı panel testi yardımı ile yeni bir boyutkazandırmaktır. Denge döviz kurundan sapmayı Türkiye ve BRICS ülkeleri 1995-2005 yılları içininceleyip sapmanın ekonomik performans üzerindeki etkisi araştırılacaktır. Denge düzeyininhesaplanmasında orta vade döviz kurunu ifade eden Temel Denge Döviz Kurundan (FEER)yararlanılacaktır

Exchange Rate Mısalıgnments And Theır Its’ Effect On Growth at Turkey and Brıcs: A Feer Approach

Nominal exchange rate is among the most important factors that play a significant role in foreign trade volume and capital mobilization of countries. Real exchange rate is used to express the value of a currency in terms of its purchasing power. Additionally, any evaluations based on real exchange rate only are not sufficient per se, as equilibrium exchange rate calculations incorporating the economical dynamics are required. The variation between realized real exchange rate and equilibrium exchange rate (i.e. deviation from the equilibrium) provides financial information about economic growth in mid- and long terms. In this context, this study addresses the need in the literature to study and analyze the effect of deviations from real exchange rate and equilibrium level on economic performance. The main purpose of this project is to contribute and provide an extension to the ongoing discussions on the concept of exchange rate and the calculation of exchange rates via panel analysis with structural breaks. The deviation from the equilibrium exchange rate will be examined for Turkey and BRICS countries for the years 1995-2005 and the impact on the economic performance of the dispute will be investigated. In light of the findings from aforesaid analysis, any theoretical relationships between deviation and economic performance will be identified and evidenced. In the

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